Result of present general election does not come as a surprise as it was anticipated that PTI shall emerge the largest party in the assembly but unfortunately could not get enough seats to avoid black mailing of smaller parties and independents. PTI’s grand success in KPK is more than their expectations as it was believed that MMA may create some major dent and get more than 50 percent seats but they failed miserably that simply reflect that negative propaganda spread against PTI about their poor performance did not work and they emerged largest party to form the government. Likewise PTI performance in Punjab has been extremely good and paved way for forming their government with the help of independents. Baluchistan result was according to expectations and was obvious due to recent political regrouping in the province. While crying foul, the former government failed to bring reforms and allowed status quo to prevail.
At present Horse trading is in full swing. Let us first define what Horse Trading is. Businesses carried out unethically fall under horse trading. In a further development of meaning, horse trading has come to refer specifically to political vote trading. This is now the most commonly used term in political barging. As an expression, it refers to hard and shrewd bargaining, especially in politics. It is nothing new for Pakistan. It has been most distinguished feature of Pakistan politics
Make break game is on. Things are not very clear. Opposition parties under PML N and Maulana Fazalur Rahman are busy in throwing salvo’s on IMRAN and his party. Independents and smaller groups are busy in negotiations to get maximum benefit from the situation. Go getters are busy in meeting smaller groups for the support in the assembly, the costs are being weighed.
The situation after these elections is not that good as expected. Charges of large scale rigging are being debated ,sympathizes of Nawaz are trying hard to ensure PTI remains in trouble. But PTI has managed the game numbers fairly comfortably in Punjab with some difficulties at the centre as per their spokesperson. The most interesting feature of this election has been defeat of electable as a result PTI has emerged the largest party in the country. For all practical purposes PTI should form the government as it has now become their democratic right, but PPP, PML N and MMA have not reconciled with the success of PTI. Another setback to opposition has been speech of the PTI leader Imran Khan that has been well received throughout the world and more so in Pakistan. The outstanding feature of Imran’s personality is that he is not corrupt and people feel that he will be able to fulfill his dreams of serving poor people of this country.
There are 342 seats in the National Assembly, PTI needs 172 to form the government.PTI has 117 seats, out of these 5 are to be vacated (4 Imran Khan and 1 Tahir Sadiq). They shall be left with 112, 14 independents are joining PTI so the figure reaches to 126, if we add 28 women seats it becomes 154. Being in Majority, minority seats shall go to them total becomes 159. PTI allies GDA, PML Q BNP, APMLN seats around 12 if added PTI total comes to 171. PTI needs 172 to form the government. That means PTI to be on safe side require MQM P seats that are 6. To ensure 100 percent victory PTI is left with no choice to join hands with MQMP. PTI has no choice except to enter in to coalition with MQM P like other smaller groups to form government at the centre.
But one thing is very clear Imran will find it difficult to complete his agenda specially his 100 days plan when faced with explosive economic condition. Let us be very clear his manifesto, pledges, promises, creating 10 million jobs and 50 lac Home for poor may not materialize. He shall face problems on two fronts. Firstly having no money in the kitty and secondly black mailing of small parties demanding major share in the cabinet. Let us presume that Imran forms the government at the centre and Punjab so what? He will not be able to move forward until and unless he has comfortable majority in the house. Beggars cannot be choosers? He has succumbed to all type of pressure to complete the number game,
As a new emerging leader of Pakistan his options are limited per necessity he has to accept MQM P and prefer over PPP. It is not going to be bed of roses and his first challenge is crushing financial crunch that would force him to approach IMF for bailout alternatively there could be Chinese bailout. We need $ 8 Billion to 10 Billion to come out from crisis. Let us see which way the wind blows.
The writer is a freelance journalist and defence Analyst.