Pakistan is considered one of the developing countries and, as such, is striving to become a more industrialized nation without leaving its deeply rooted agricultural economy. During the mid-60s, spanning over a decade, Pakistan made great strides in that direction. Later, this momentum was lost due to the political instability and poor planning by the bureaucrats and policymakers. In the following decades, unplanned industrial developments and a lack of interest in investing in upgrading the technologies not only declined the plants’ productivity, but they also created environmental challenges. The plants were considered as the cash cows, and thus, the investments were made at just the bare minimum levels to keep them running. Because of this approach and lack of environmental policy, the industrial plants became one of the major sources of pollution. During the same period, the Pakistani middle class continued to grow, and their hunger for adopting western lifestyles created the use of personal transportation (cars, motorcycles), air-conditioning, electric/gas appliances, processed foods, and other luxury items as status symbols. As a result, major metropolitan cities became densely populated and sources of pollution and emissions of very high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), the major cause of global warming.
To support its industrial activities and the unstoppable increase in the personal transportation preference by the growing middle class, Pakistan has no choice but to heavily import oil and gas (fossil fuels) from the GCC, creating supper-thick haze, heavy fog, and smoke, the major sources of public health, particularly respiratory illnesses. This trend has created traffic congestion in the major cities. As a result, an ever-expanding landscape of chronic health crises has emerged. For all this, the pollution is the root cause and is intensifying COPD cases and other pulmonary diseases in every age group and socio-economic segment of the population. If this trend stays unchecked, it will have a major impact on the country’s fragile public health system and intensify its effects as one of the major contributors to global warming.
Every society’s quality of life and prosperity depend on its economic growth through industrial activities, which require power supplies. For its power generation, Pakistan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels (coal, oil & gas), which are the major proven sources of pollution and creators of unhealthy air quality for breathing. Currently, Pakistan consumes about 200-210 million barrels of oil per year, mostly imported from the GCC member countries. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, in 2024, the nation spent a whopping $5.1 billion on oil imports alone.
The industry experts claim that for every barrel of oil, 0.43-0.45 metric tons of CO2 are generated. This means that from oil alone, 90 to 100 million metric tons (MT) of CO2 are emitted in Pakistan. With the renewed strive to become a more industrialized nation to help its exports and less dependence on agriculture, Pakistan is poised to continue to increase its carbon footprint and CO2 emissions.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the total number of vehicles (cars, pickup trucks, heavy-duty hauling trucks, buses, etc.) is growing at 10% per year. According to CEIC (Census & Economic Information Center, based in Hong Kong) and other data reporting agencies, as of 2022, the total number of vehicles (registered & unregistered) in Pakistan was about 23.6 million units. In Pakistan, vehicles alone generate more than 100 million MT of CO2 per year. However, with the current conservative projection of about a 10% growth rate, by 2050, Pakistan’s vehicle population will reach about 400 million units. This means that by 2050, up to 180 million MT of carbon dioxide will be generated by the vehicles alone!
Besides the transportation industry, there are other sources of CO2 emitters, like the power plants (coal, oil & gas), chemical plants, biomass plants, steel, and cement plants etc. Steel and cement plants not only use a very high amount of energy in their production processes, but they are also the most pollution-generating products of industrial activities. According to a recent “Global Carbon Project” study, cement is reported as the most energy-intensive industrial product globally. By conservative estimates, Pakistan has generated about 14 million MT of CO2 from this industry alone in 2018. According to industry experts, Pakistan is among the top thirty (30) CO2 emitters of the world, generating over 200 million MT in the pre-COVID year, and by the next decade, it will reach over 420 million MT of CO2 emissions if it remains unchecked.
It’s true, no country can live without cement and steel to continue to grow its economy, support its development, and improve its standard of living. Thus, in today’s industrial world, the only way to live & sustain the growth while reducing its carbon footprint is through the adoption of a proven technology that is universal, reliable, and sustainable. To date, besides the natural process of photosynthesis by the plants, carbon capture & storage (CCS) technology has shown outstanding results. It is being used very successfully commercially in several European countries. However, because of its continued technological breakthroughs and exemplary successes under every condition, it needs multilevel collaborations like the governments, policymakers, investors, multilateral donors, industry leaders, and the private sector.
Under the current government, Pakistan seems committed to addressing the ever-increasing pollution by devising environmental policies to check and reduce the pollutants, particularly the CO2 emissions. The former government initiated tree plantation on a very massive scale (10 billion trees), which did not materialize.
Trees do indeed help reduce atmospheric CO2, but starting from seedlings takes a very long time to get a real benefit from the tree plantation scheme. One must remember that over 10 years after the plantation, only 60 to 65% of the planted trees survive. According to an exhaustive US Department of Agriculture (USDA) research, one mature tree (3-5-year-old) absorbs ~21 kg of CO2 on an annual basis. For everyone MT of CO2 absorption (per year), about 50 trees are needed. Thus, for every 100 million MT of CO2, Pakistan will need about 5 billion healthy trees to absorb the CO2 emission generated just from the vehicles (currently generating about 100 million MT of CO2 per year).
Even though the tree plantation is a great natural way not only to absorb the atmospheric CO2 but also through its naturally built-in photosynthesis process, it converts it into oxygen (O2), the lifeline for all the living organisms, including human beings. Since the industrial activities and the transportation cannot be stopped to wait for the plantation to reach maturity, the best solution is to use carbon capture-storage technology (CCS). Using this technology, CO2 is captured at its production source (factories and power plants). After the capture, it must be transported via a pipeline or other means, like tank trucks or vessels, to the storage sites. Usually, the storage sites are created in the oceans or underground. These technologies are already being successfully used in the EU and the Scandinavian countries with few challenges.
Like any new technology, the CCS technology requires heavy investments for its infrastructure and capabilities that are not currently found in developing countries, including Pakistan. This means that Pakistan must approach the developed countries that are currently using this technology and are willing to share it. Since global warming is a global issue, it will be a great initiative if the UN spearheads this project by creating a consortium of the CCS technology companies/countries and directs them to transfer the technology to the developing countries, as well as the poor nations. Additionally, the multilateral donor agencies and investment bankers should be brought on board for funding of these projects at zero cost, or at the rate of their CO2 emissions, or a fraction of the revenues generated through their plants. This will be a great landmark and milestone for the UN and will be as memorable as its creation after the Second World War. By sponsoring and underwriting this project (CCS), the UN will not only help the countries that do not have access to the technology and financial means for reducing their CO2 emissions, but will also help the entire world in reducing its carbon footprint collectively to reach the carbon-neutral target of 2050.
This blueprint for tackling global warming will be a winning pathway for every nation in creating more inclusive and fair conditions for breathing healthy air, without sacrificing the determination of the free spirit to continue pursuing and advancing the frontiers of excellence in technology, health, and quality of life.
