Dissolution Of Punjab And KP Assemblies Will Make Political Crisis Worse
The most recent strategy shift by Imran Khan has surprised his rivals. The federal government had been stepping up security around the nation’s capital and preparing for a siege for months. The Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies’ dissolution and the PTI’s decision to cancel the march, however, have completely altered the situation.
It all occurred on the eve of the change of guard in Rawalpindi, giving the power struggle a unique twist. The march’s culmination, which was meant to pressure the government into accepting early elections, saw the change in tactics occur in the garrison city.
It is clear that the PTI’s multi-month campaign failed to meet any of its goals. Will Khan’s latest attempt to scuttle the new regime succeed? The dissolution of the legislatures in the two most influential provinces and the potential exodus of PTI representatives from the other provincial legislatures could undoubtedly exacerbate the political situation and make it more difficult for the splintered ruling coalition to hold together.
It might not, however, be the end of the game. The decision has been endorsed by the PTI leadership, but its execution has not yet occurred. With the two top ministers involved, it seems like there shouldn’t be any problems, but nothing can be taken for granted until it’s completed. Despite what it asserts, the center-right government coalition does not appear to have the ability to prevent the breakup. Governor’s rule may not be a viable option in this case.
The federal government is not legally required to dissolve the National Assembly and call for general elections just because the provincial assemblies were dissolved. However, the two provinces’ upcoming elections would alter the overall political landscape.
The political crisis will worsen if the Punjab and KP assemblies are dissolved. The PTI has also made the decision to approach the National Assembly Speaker to accept the resignations of its remaining legislators. The PTI members’ absence from its sessions had already rendered the National Assembly ineffective; accepting their resignations would only make matters worse.
The entire show is planned to thoroughly undermine the framework. Will a fragile coalition government be able to survive such intense political pressure?
The approaching possibility of a sovereign default and the coming economic collapse are what should most worry us. The incompetent government and its illiterate finance minister do not appear to be able to rescue the nation from its current predicament. Economic development has been hindered by the soaring current account deficit and out-of-control inflation.
Stemming the rot becomes significantly more difficult when political instability increases. There is no chance for improvement as the nation is on a precipice. We are seeing what Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister, calls a “continuous downward decline.” But the noise of a political blame game drowns out the ominous warning about the sinking ship.
It’s a state problem in the middle of anarchy, not merely a political or economic one. The state’s authority is deteriorating, making the situation quite dire. The escalating political unrest has made room for non-state players.
The militancy has increased alarmingly in the former tribal districts and other regions of KP. In some places, outlawed terrorist groups are once again active, capitalising on the waning power of the state and the unrest in the political system.
A failure in our national security strategy can be seen in the fact that militants have returned to Swat valley more than ten years after the Pakistani military drove them out of the area. The alleged presence of heavily armed men brings to mind the horrible times of Pakistani Taliban rule in 2008. The revival of the insurgent network in Swat does not appear to be a unique occurrence. The TTP is currently active in the former tribal regions as well, especially Waziristan.
Strangely, their activity seems to have grown after Pakistani security services began peace talks with the militant group operating from their safe havens in Afghanistan earlier this year.
The militants’ return to Swat is strongly suspected to have been the consequence of a bargain. After the military campaign in 2009, the most of them had fled to Afghanistan. There are rumours that nearby extremist organisations have joined them.
The TTP has broken a shaky ceasefire and instructed the militants to carry out assaults all around the nation amid the political upheaval that has taken over the nation. The announcement comes as no surprise because the truce was never put into effect.
The supposedly peaceful talks appear to have allowed the militants room to operate. The interior ministry has issued a warning about some TTP groups joining the extremist Islamic State organisation.
In recent weeks, thousands Pakistani people have gathered in numerous locations throughout Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to demonstrate against the return of militancy and the security authorities’ inactivity.
The Taliban’s reign of terror in the region during that time is something the locals will never forget. The reemergence of violent groups could cause the nation to become even more unstable.
The nation’s army is now under new command despite the disarray. The turmoil around the appointment may have subsided thanks to the changeover, but the new head still faces formidable obstacles. Even while the security establishment has vowed to stay out of politics, considering how deeply ingrained the military is in the system of power, it might not be so simple.
There is always the chance that it will become involved in the conflict between the competing political factions.
The ruling coalition may have been forced into a corner by Imran Khan’s most recent action to dissolve the provincial assemblies, but it has also escalated the political conflict and worsened the disarray.
The ex-prime minister has the power to compel the administration to accept a date for the elections that is a few months before the end of the current National Assembly session. But it’s unlikely that this would make things better.
Whether the feuding parties can come to a compromise on a system for free and fair elections is a crucial topic. How to handle the escalating economic crisis and the rise of militancy, which pose a severe threat to national security, is more crucial.