Occupied Kashmir had remained core issue between India and Pakistan since partition. Pakistan fought three wars they remained inconclusive as both sides failed to achieve their objectives. Certainly 5 August 2019 was the darkest day in the history of India when Prime Minister Modi revoked Article 370 and 35-A doing away with the special status of Kashmir guaranteed under the Indian Constitution. Since then valley is under curfew as a result over 9 million Kashmiris are suffering badly on account of brutalities by over 7.5 lac Indian troops deployed in the valley. There is total black out of communications and valley has been turned in to no go area including opposition leaders of India who have been denied access to any part of the valley.
Pakistan’s reaction has been very sharp but with no bite. Pakistan is passing through grave economic crisis leaving very limited options to deal the situation. Our close friends have also not come openly in our support on Kashmir but appears to be siding with India. When the economy is dipping it poses another question whether Pakistan can enter in to war option when both countries have potent nuclear option. But in all probabilities the nuclear option may be set aside as it will further complicate the issue. Question arises will conventional war can settle the issue. The answer is very simple in case we go for a limited war will the international community support us and how long we shall sustain this war when we are facing financial crunch. India is trying to provoke us but so far we have resisted but our patience is running fast. People want that Pakistani forces should teach lesson to India but we don’t want to be called as aggressor war will be our last option. But the fact is under present circumstances we cannot afford war. The general perception that Afghan Taliban may help Pakistan is not certain because of growing differences between Taliban and US. It is true that it was Pakistan that brought Taliban for talks with US, we acted as facilitator and US acknowledges it, but US reluctance to help Pakistan on Kashmir issue and arrange relief for 9 million Kashmiris who are under curfew for the last 33 days is not understandable. Although the two issues are different and there is no commonality whatsoever but US should have brought some sort of influence on Modi to relax the curfew. Pakistan is equally worried due FATF that is hanging like a Damocles sword over our heads and decision shall be taken in October to clear us from helping militants in Pakistan. Indian lobby is busy and trying to win support of members not to clear us from harbouring militants in Pakistan. Pakistan has done enough and has complied with their observations to get out of grey list.
Pakistan’s main issue is how to help Kashmiris and provide them relief by lifting curfew, in fact we are running out of options while it is happening Kashmiris continue to suffer badly.Unfortunately Muslim countries did support us on Kashmir but it lacked proper force and the biggest blow came from UAE when they gave policy statement that Kashmir was internal problem of India, while making this statement it would have been more appropriate to know the exact history of Kashmir, but each country has its own priorities and self interest. International community is silent and not pushed at all. Human Rights Organisations, Human Rights NGO’s silence is not understandable at all. There is no justification in shutting down all modes of communication, the world must rise to the occasion and prevent human rights abuses and avoid escalation that may not end in nuclear disaster and then it would be too late. As the things are moving Modi is least bothered because no one is putting any pressure on him
Pakistan continues to allow trade and use of air space to India. Practically we have neither been able to impose our sanctions on India nor international community is coming forward to support us, these slow moves are helping India to consolidate its hold on Kashmir. The Supreme Court of India advanced strange logic in lifting curfew and opening the communication blockade and said let the things get normalised. How things can get normalised with the imposition of curfew that has entered 33 rd day. That means our options are running out but at the same time a solution has to be sought as soon as possible at least be able to arrange lifting of curfew. Perhaps the only option is to knock the door of UN but without waiting for 27 September
Lastly, the intensity with which we have opened the flood gates of the use of diplomacy as the sole option to win over Kashmir is appreciable. But behind this utilization of soft power the hard power of the state must also remain ready. Politics and military as instruments of power must remain ready with their homework. Both may e employed on a very short notice considering India and Modi can go to any length to protect their interests in Indian held Kashmir.