14 August 1947 – Reemergence of Muslim rule in subcontinent since1857 . Muslims in united India would have been perpetually under Hindu slavery and dominance ( Jinnah 1938 Muslim Annual General Meeting at Calcutta) . It is almost over 79 years now and Pakistan has been prospering and getting strengthened in spite of all the turmoils and agony . Pakistan today is standing in the pivotal role , crossroad of Geo Strategic change involving America and the West on one side and South Block on the other side .79 years is not a long time but in these eight decades scores of countries ,much more powerful and stable and economically better , fell and got fractured. Soviet Union and many countries in Europe and in Africa stand dismembered . Pakistan has been subject to conspiracies and enmity , out right arson , geo strategic economic pressures and aggression across international borders from India and globally . Post partition, Pakistan was engulfed in the Kashmir war, killing of almost a million Muslims during partition, exodus of almost 20 million refugees’ largest migration in history, not releasing Pakistani assets a few examples. There have been internal and external threats since partition , funding nationalism and sub nationalism , and of course exploitation of all fault lines in Pakistan., Four million refugees from Afghanistan in consequence of internal disorder, post 1979 Iranian revolution another over million from Iran migrated . Causing economic and social pressures, Pakistan also remains in the grip of perpetual terrorism . Terrorism impacted Pakistan in multi dimensions. Objective and character kept changing but the masters who orchestrated remain the same . In the follow up of Afghan war Pakistan problems have been multiplied due dramatic geo strategic changes in South Asia the past year-as well as globally . The political and strategic spectrum altered regional and global strategic balance ,military and in economy. Break up of Soviet Union created ripples and Pakistan is severely affected . Pakistani nation not only faced the turmoil , bore hardships but survived all odds. There are opportunities as well as dangers in the follow-up of changes occurring globally and specially in South Asia, Middle East and central Asia. Pakistan is in the in the eye of storm Pakistan, struck by COVID-19 , a global epidemic which has impacted the world economy , globally loss of lives , jobs and trillions of dollars.
While Gaza burns , joint US Israel attack on Iran unleashed, the first 12-day war was lethal but Iran responded with ferocity forcing US and Isreal to go for cease fire. In this Pakistanis role in diplomacy has been instrumental. The Planners in Washington and Tel Aviv had envisioned a quick victory after elimination of the almost all top hierarchy of the Iranian , it failed. The world is now suffering due to the prolongation of the war and its impact on world economy due to the closure of strait of Hormuz. Pakistan has also been badly affected being the importer of oil and gas from the Gulf region and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, Pakistan leadership stepped forward and against very heavy odds ,commenced efforts to mediate , to stop the war. Pakistan is in a unique position , the only country trusted by both the parties. Pakistan has direct contact with IRGC leadership ,and enjoy trust of Mr Trump. Pakistan, powerful conventional but modern army backed by nuclear arsenal, no other country can take place this task. It is very delicate and dangerous role since there are pressures on Pakistan from multi directions, West/ US and the South Block powers . Pakistan’s efforts the mediate ever since war broke out has been hailed globally .Cease fire has been violated and broken by the United States under Israeli pressure, Iran sustained , in the follow up , almost 3 weeks of sustained bombing from United States displaying resilience of the Iranian nation. Iran counter attacked the bases in the gulf countries not only got smashed but also inflicted heavy punishment on the economy of Gulf states especially Dubai. The architecture of American bases in gulf states around Iran stand collapsed. These bases are the magnet for counter attack by Iran . Technically, legally the bases are considered American territory Pakistan is also affected due to large number of Pakistani expatiates.
The monumental Defence agreement with Saudi Arabia , now enlarged with inclusion of Turkey , has also been one of the reasons of the coolness of the gulf states. It is a trilateral strategic and defence architecture and it will be wrong to call it Islamic NATO . Gulf states relationship with Israel also impacted the regional security environment. American pressures on Saudi Arabia to sign Abraham record in exchange of nuclear research facility is now in limbo. The trilateral agreement is a major force multiplier for all three countries. Not withstanding there are critics who spin their own views to criticise. Saudi Arabia will not sign Abraham accord due to expected backlash from the people of Saudi Arabia as well as the Muslim world , Saudi being the guardians of Macca and Medina. Pakistan is continuing its effort to restart the mediation to stop the war and also Gulf countries are pressing Washington to stop raids due to Irani response and diplomacy be given chance.
Regionally, South Asia , departure of fascist government of Husina Wajid has been a welcome strategic change . The balance of power in the subcontinent has shifted . RAW has been running the Husina’s government from its strong hold Dhaka last over 12 years , perpetuating terror on the people of Bangladesh especially Jamat Islami . Illegal international trial and hanging the members of Jamat Islami will go down in the history as a dark chapter in Bangladesh . The change has brought Bangladesh and Pakistan closer both economically, strategically in Defence cooperation. Further that China is extending development to the new government is a security architecture . RAW is continuing its effort to demean new elected government. There is a great scope of cooperation between the two brothers , Pakistan and Bangladesh, as I always mentioned in my earlier articles that we did fight on the property but the fact remains we remain brothers . This slogan has been echoed by Bangladesh Television now. The contribution of the Bengali people in the creation of Pakistan cannot be underestimated. Two nations but one body declared by Bangladesh minister during Pakistan’s visit last month. However, Pakistan needs to extend it hand further because of it size and strategic requirements.
Collapse of Ashraf Ghani government in Afghanistan, and withdrawal of United States troops enabled the Taliban to take control of the country. In this arrangement Pakistan’s has been pivotal in getting DOHA accord for the United States. However, in the last three years Talban perpetuated and supported the terrorism and all those organisations on Afghan soil are being sheltered and supported. It violates the Doha agreement. and continue to support those elements which are operating against Pakistan. India stepping in and kinetic support of Israel as further complicated the Afghan quagmire. Afghanistan in the present dispensation a serious threat to the neighbouring . The philosophy of negotiation is a preferable choice; the ground realities today has undergone sea change. Dozens of terrorist organisations operating in the Afghan territory with different masters . The space for negotiation gets narrowed , the state has to take difficult and bold decisions. The punishment which Pakistan Defence forces inflicted on the terrorists within Afghanistan has its impact . However , there is unending funding to these organisations from India and some other countries . Technology based terrorism against Pakistan Is the new phenomena. Pakistan intelligence agencies and others law enforcement are doing well but they lack adequate technology resources in the far-flung areas and cohesive political support. It is necessary to re-examine dimensions of terrorist architecture operating and how to counter . The traditional methods will not work. The terrorist is no more a proxy but a strategic tool in the hands of those powers who are against Pakistan for obvious reasons . This call for a cohesive integrated National strategy , a new Defence counter intelligence architecture, and involvement of the locals not only in the affairs of their own governance but also to provide them resources for fortresses , and strength to counter terrorist activity . Not withstanding the fact that there are elements in Pakistan who oppose any military action not realising that the ground realities have totally changed. Whether we like it or not , Baluchistan is a hot bed of great power game due its geography . The denial is self deception .Therefore a very elaborate, three-dimensional approach will be required. It is diplomatic, and friendship with India to cool down their support , empowerment of local governments and town and cities spread in Baluchistan. Post Operation Bunnan annul Masroor Pakistan established its conventional war capability and Indian bluff of nuclear threat. Pakistan diplomatically proved the superiority. It is a major change in the strategic milieu in the region and its impact globally. The reverses have not been accepted by The BJP government and their threats and subversion are not only continuing but has been further increased. Pakistan has its own political mistakes , India and Isreal nexus is benefiting from this political disorder. The uncertainty is creating a negative impact on the psychology of the people of the Pakistan. It needs to be therefore immediately tackled , is important for Pakistan. World Bank and IMF are the strategic tools of US and Western powers to keep those countries in line who try to disobey. Sovereignty is linked with economy. There cannot be a strong military without good economy and they cannot be a good diplomacy without military. Therefore, Pakistan must quickly put its house in order, On the global chessboard even if some agreement is reached between USA and Iran, Israel will continue to put spanners. The vibes coming out of Israel with Defence and their strategic think thanks, Turkey is increasing their influence in Syria and may also impact Lebanon. It is considered a serious threat by Israel .Therefore in overall probability Turkey will be the next theatre of war . In that case the conflict is likely to be global since Turkey member of NATO and it will also a test case on European community. Similarly , Pakistan remains a target through proxies operated and founded by India and other interested .There are no chance Indians will change their policy in spite of the reverses they have suffered both kinetically and diplomatically. There are some muted voices in India , that no progress can be made in subcontinent unless peace between India and Pakistan. To my assessment the chances are slim as long as Modi government is in power. In these four years Pakistan’s economic woos have increased due to certain fundamental economic approach. First unbridled government expenses , wasting money on optic projects ,continued taxation and not sorting the IPP issue . In the last three budgets there has been no indication that any such plan is being implemented , to upgrade transmission transmission lines and make best use of IPP. On the contrary customers are being charged almost 3 to 400 times of the actual electric consumption. Result, Pakistanis Industry is virtually at a grinding halt. The issue of Indus Basin water Treaty is likely to create ripples if not resolved, it can lead to water war. Pakistan’s young generation is an asset and needs to be educated and for the future responsibilities
There have been some positive improvements in defence capability and diplomacy. Bangladesh Pakistan reproach needs to be strengthened. In 1986 an effort was made to move towards confederation , India got wind of it and it was scuttled . Pakistan should move steadily with political will. . Create visa free travel environment and tax-free trade. This could be followed by Bangladesh Pakistan strengthening in free trade. Such measures will bring confidence between the two countries. To conclude 14 August is also the Independence Day of Bangladesh.
