Gold likely to remain in bears’ grip

ISLAMABAD: After closing the last week on a slightly negative note by shedding $3.90 (-0.22 percent) on a week-on-week basis at $1,758.10 per ounce, gold’s technical outlook remains bearish with the commodity failing to break above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) for the 18th straight trading day.
Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) indicator stays slightly below 50, confirming the view that sellers are looking to remain in control of gold’s action. Overall, the gold price has shed around 4.5 percent during the last four weeks and there is a clear bearish shift in its outlook.
Meanwhile, the price of gold decreased by 0.31 percent in Pakistan during the last week. The price of 10 grams of yellow metal in Pakistan was Rs96,600 at the opening of the last week and it decreased to Rs96,300 to close the week.
The difference in depreciation in gold price in the local and international markets was due to depreciation of the local currency, which depreciated by 0.03 percent against the US dollar during the week, with the dollar opening at Rs170.48 on Monday last and closing at Rs170.53 on Friday last.
From a technical point of view, the initial support is located at $1,750 (lower limit of the weekly channel) ahead of $1,730 (static level) and $1,720 (late September low). On the flip side, the first hurdle aligns at $1,763 (20-day SMA) ahead of $1,780 (October 8 high, 50- day SMA). Only a daily close above the latter could open the door for a prolonged rebound towards $1,800, where the 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA meet.
During the last week, gold continued to edge higher on Monday and reached a 10-day top of $1,770. Nevertheless, gold struggled to extend its rebound amid dollar resilience and formed a horizontal trading channel with a lower limit of $1,750. Although gold broke above that channel on Friday and touched a 15-day high of $1,781 with the initial reaction to the disappointing September jobs report from the US, it retreated below $1,770 ahead of the weekend.
In the coming week, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September on Wednesday. Investors forecast the annual CPI to tick up to 5.4% from 5.3% in August. On Thursday, the US Department of Labour’s weekly initial jobless claims data will be looked upon for fresh impetus ahead of Friday’s Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to show a modest contraction in September.
It is pertinent to mention that TLTP Research Wing predicted on October 3 that gold’s short- and medium-term outlook is bearish. – TLTP