When fuel prices drop but fares don’t: A case for airfare regulation

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Mukhtar Ahmed Butt
Mukhtar Ahmed Butt : The writer is freelance journalist and defence analyst.

It was the mid-90s the turning point for modern travel booking. While electronic reservations existed earlier, 1996 was a landmark year for consumer-facing online travel. The launch of platforms like Travelocity (a partnership with the Sabre reservation system) and Expedia (via Microsoft) fundamentally changed how tickets were sold, shifting the power from travel agents to automated, internet-based systems. The current pricing model, known as Dynamic Pricing or Yield Management, is designed to maximize revenue for airlines, not necessarily to provide the lowest cost to the consumer. The Airlines do not sell every seat on a plane for the same price. They divide the cabin into “fare buckets”. The cheapest seats are released months in advance to lock in early demand. As the flight fills up, these cheaper buckets disappear, leaving only the most expensive ones available for last-minute travelers. The Airlines know that a person booking a flight from Karachi to Lahore on short notice is often doing so for an emergency or urgent business. Because this traveler has little flexibility, they are categorized as “price insensitive,” meaning the airline can charge significantly higher prices because the passenger has no other choice. It may seem logical that an empty seat should be discounted to fill the plane, but airlines avoid this because they do not want to “train” passengers to wait for last-minute deals. If they slashed prices at the last minute, business travelers who pay premium prices would simply wait to book until the end, causing the airline to lose money.
Due to fluctuation in fuel prices these are often used by airlines as a cover to adjust for volatile oil prices without changing the “base fare” in their computer systems. While the logic is that they are tied to fuel indices, they are rarely as transparent or responsive to price drops as consumers would prefer. The high fees associated with cancellations are designed to discourage changes and compensate the airline for the “yield” they lost by holding a seat that could have been sold to someone else at a higher rate. As airfare rises, it becomes a luxury rather than a utility. In many economies, this creates a “poverty trap” where travel becomes increasingly unaffordable for the middle class, while corporate and high-net-worth travelers often shielded by loyalty programs or corporate accounts are less impacted by these fluctuations.
Currently, the aviation industry is heavily committed to dynamic, AI-driven pricing engines that process thousands of data points including competitor prices, local economic events, and individual search history in real time. A shift back to a “fixed-price” system would likely require significant government intervention or regulation, as individual airlines are unlikely to abandon a system that is statistically proven to maximize their profit margins. Without such regulation, the industry continues to prioritize “revenue per available seat” over passenger accessibility. Does the current pricing structure specifically prevent you from making necessary travel, or is it the lack of transparency in how these final prices are calculated that you find most frustrating? Another critical aspect of online fare structures is the complete disconnect between falling fuel prices and ticket pricing. While airlines are quick to pass on increases in fuel costs to passengers through higher fares, the same principle is rarely applied when oil prices decline.
This one-sided approach undermines transparency and erodes consumer trust. It is time to reconsider the online dynamic pricing model and revert, at least partially, to a more regulated and predictable fare system. Under such a framework, fares could be adjusted periodically in line with fuel price movements-both upward and downward-ensuring a fairer deal for travelers and greater accountability within the aviation industry. fuel surcharges were introduced as a temporary measure to offset spikes in oil costs. Today, however, these fees have often been folded into base fares or renamed (e.g., “Carrier-imposed surcharges”) and frequently persist even when fuel prices drop. You could argue that if these charges are not linked to actual fuel costs, they lack transparency and erode consumer trust. A major reason airlines do not immediately lower fares when oil prices drop is that they often use “hedging”. To protect themselves against future price spikes, airlines sign long-term contracts to buy fuel at a fixed price. If the market price of oil falls, the airline may still be locked into paying a higher, pre-contracted rate. Airlines must end one sided fare manipulation.