Designating cartels and other organizations as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists”. On January 20, 2025, in a dramatic policy shift, the United States government officially designated several Mexican cartels, along with Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations. the move – consistent with the legal framework established by Executive Order 13224 ( originally issued on September 23, 2001).
Quoting “Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Persons Who Commit, Threaten to Commit, or Support Terrorism” – come in response to raising levels of drug-related overdose deaths, cross-border violence and surge in human trafficking and sexual rap violence. This designation reflects a long standing struggle against organized crime, where agencies like the DEA and FBI have faced growing challenged as these criminal organizations evolve into quasi-military entities as they now own armored vehicles, helicopters, high-grade weapons and drones and notably many of the cartel fighter are former military commandos.
Notably a similar attempt by president trump in November 2019 to label certain cartels as terrorist organizations was postponed after discussion with the Mexican government, following a tragic incident of massacre involving nine U.S.-Mexican dual citizens. As the cartels continues to expand their influence the new designation is set to empower American Law enforcement with broader authority to confront these groups operating with impunity of a “state within a state.”
The idea of designating cartels as terrorists, is decades old. It began in 1980s during Ronald Reagan’s administration, when drug trafficking started to be viewed as a direct threat to national security. Since then, both Democrats and Republicans have promoted the concept of “narcoterrorism.” However, this label has raised significant concerns in Mexico, where officials see it as a one-sided decision that challenges national sovereignty. Critics argue that the terrorist designation now gives U.S. a legal basis for military intervention. President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained that the bilateral relation should be based on cooperation rather than subordination, stressing that “Our relationship with America is one of equals.” She has called for open communication to address migration and drug trafficking issues on an equal footing. Given that Mexico is America’s largest trade partners – with frameworks such as the United states-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) underpinning the relationship – both nations are facing similar challenges. Recent high level dialogues between Mexican President and President Trump have even led to a pause in proposed tariffs, signaling a move toward coordinated action against cartel terror.
Currently, the most powerful cartels at present in Mexico are the Sinaloa cartel and the CJNG. The Sinaloa cartel is based primarily in Sinaloa state of Mexico. It is the most powerful cartel among all because of it creative tactics such as tunnel building between the borders and decentralized framework of operations. The cartels run through network of loyal lieutenants and distributors.
The Sinaloa cartel has longstanding presence along the border areas especially in Tijuana (Baja California) and Ciudad Juarez (Chihuahua). Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is the rival organization of Sinaloa which co-exist with Sinaloa cartel in the region. They also have equipped with drones, high-grade weapons and armored vehicles. The Sinaloa cartel leader Ismail “El Mayo” Zembada got arrested on July 25th 2024 in Amercan border region of El- Paso which started the war within the factions of Sinaloa cartel; the Los Mayitos and Los Chapitos, resulting in hundreds of deaths since September.
The internal conflict disrupted criminal dynamics in at least 10 states, with violence spilling over into neighboring Chihuahua and Sonora. In Tabasco, the fragmentation of the criminal landscape following a split within a local La Barredora group in December 2023 ignited dispute over control over migrant trafficking routes among local groups and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The CJNG continued expansion further exacerbated dispute with local criminal groups and its main rival, the Sinaloa Cartel.
In Guanajuato, rising violence was attributed to turf battles between the CJNG and the Santa Rasa de Lima (SRL), both vying for control of the lucrative fuel theft market. Meanwhile, in Chiapas violence surged as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG fought for control of the Guatemalan border and human trafficking routes. These developments underscore the evolving and expanding nature of cartel-related violence in Mexico, with internal divisions and territorial disputes contributing to increased instability across multiple regions.
Moreover, The American Army is being deployed along the Mexican border. Several clashes have erupted between cartels and military as the cartels use drones to bomb American forces. The cartels are also in fight with border police and are at full alert. The violence is increasing more than ever as the cartels will do anything for their survival and to protect their drug and trafficking empire. Mexico sends thousands of National Guard members to its border with the U.S. As part of a series of agreements to delay the start of tariffs for one month, Mexico will reinforce security along its border with the United States with 10,000 National Guard troops to fight drug trafficking.
The designation of cartels as terrorist organizations is likely to destabilize Mexico’s internal conditions further. As the illegal market contracts, cartels will intensify their efforts to maintain control, resulting in escalating violence. The cartels may step up attacks on officials and law enforcement, similar to the 2023 assaults aimed at securing the release of El Chapo’s son. This designation could also impact Mexican and American business in which cartels have significant investment or has kept any king of interaction with, such as in avocado farming and tourism. Furthermore, categorizing cartels as terrorist organization may bolster the legitimacy of asylum claims from those affected but the actions of cartels.
Most importantly, the illicit drug trade remains highly profitable, and the cartel’s deep -rooted structures and territorial dominance in Mexico make them resilient to external pressures. Rather than curbing their criminal activities, cartels may adapt by finding alternative trafficking routes or adopting new tactics to evade law enforcement. The cartels may shift their focus toward European markets, expanding their existing cocaine trade. It’s important to note that drug trafficking also involves a significant number of American citizens. Between 2019 and 2024, 80 percent of fentanyl seizures at U.S. border checkpoints were linked to American individuals crossing through legal entry points. Lastly, the cartels may form alliances to safeguard their interests and resist authority, further complicating efforts to dismantle their operations.
Furthermore, increased US military involvement might strengthen cartel support within Mexico, as it could fuel anti-American sentiment, potentially enhancing cartel recruitment and access to resources. The US approach to migration may also inadvertently impact Mexico’s security landscape. Stricter US policies aimed at limiting migration flows could make human trafficking an increasingly lucrative endeavor for Mexican criminal organizations. It could enable gangs to finance internal conflicts and expand their control, driving further violence as groups fight to protect these profitable routes from both rivals and law enforcement.
In nut shell, the American designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations may be a justified step, but it is likely to trigger uncontrollable violence and instability across the borders. American cities may also face increased cartel-driven terrorism. The United States must remember that this time, the source of terror is not the far-from-home battlefields of Afghanistan or Iraq – it is their immediate neighbor. Unlike the ill-armed Taliban or Middle Eastern insurgents, the cartels are highly trained, well equipped, and among the wealthiest and most resourceful criminal organization in the world. The designation redefines the concept of terrorism and shifts the war on terror from Asia and Africa to American soil.
Addressing narco-terrorism requires a more multidimensional strategy that not only targets cartels but also focuses on reducing drug demand through social and economic initiatives and stricter border security. A military intervention could escalate the conflict beyond drug and human trafficking, potentially creating a far more complex and dangerous situation.
