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Analysis of Pakistan’s 2024/25 Budget

The announcement of Pakistan’s 2024 budget has drawn significant attention, highlighting the government’s strategic direction amidst economic challenges. As we dissect the budget, several points merit attention.
Budget 2024/25: Tax Increases and Stricter Import Regulations
The government has unveiled the budget for the fiscal year 2024/25, introducing several tax hikes and removing certain import duty exemptions to meet financial needs and protect local industries. One of the significant changes is the withdrawal of customs duty exemptions on hybrid vehicle imports. Additionally, tax and duty concessions on luxury electric vehicle imports have been revoked. Registration of motor vehicles will now be subject to advance tax based on the vehicle’s price rather than engine capacity, marking a shift in taxation policy. Mobile phones will be taxed at a standard rate of 18%. The Federal Excise Duty (FED) on cement has been increased from 2% to 3%. Non-filers will face a hike in advance withholding tax from 1% to 2.25%.The capital gains tax rate has also seen a significant increase, with the rate for filers set at 15% and non-filers at 45%. Furthermore, a 5% FED has been imposed on new plots, residential, and commercial properties. There are proposals to increase duties on the import of steel and paper products. A hefty FED of Rs 44,000 per kilogram is proposed on acetate tow used in cigarette filters. Import duty exemptions on glass products have been eliminated, and increases in general sales tax for the textile and leather industries are proposed. Copper, coal, paper, and plastic scrap will now be subject to sales tax withholding. These measures aim to address the government’s financial requirements and protect local industries, but they are likely to lead to an increase in the prices of goods.
GST Adjustments
Adjustment in General Sales Tax (GST) rates aim to rationalize the tax structure, though these could potentially contribute to inflationary pressures in the short term.
Tax Incentives for Industries Certain sectors, such as technology and export-oriented industries, are granted tax incentives to stimulate growth and competitiveness in the global market.
Expenditure Priorities
On the expenditure front, the government has allocated significant resources to key sectors.
o Defense: A considerable portion of the budget is allocated to defense, reflecting ongoing security concerns and geopolitical dynamics.
o Social Welfare Programs: The government has increased funding for social welfare programs, including the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and various health and education initiatives, aiming to alleviate poverty and enhance human capital development.
o Infrastructure Development: Major investments in infrastructure, particularly in transportation and energy, are planned to support long-term economic growth. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains a focal point, with new projects expected to boost economic connectivity.
Fiscal Deficit and Debt Management
The budget outlines measures to manage the fiscal deficit, which remains a pressing concern. The government aims to reduce the deficit through a combination of revenue enhancement and expenditure rationalization. However, achieving these targets will require stringent fiscal discipline and effective implementation of policies. Debt management strategies are also highlighted, with an emphasis on negotiating favorable terms for external debt and exploring opportunities for debt restructuring. The government is committed to reducing reliance on expensive foreign loans, focusing instead on mobilizing domestic resources.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Inflation control remains a significant challenge, with the budget proposing measures to curb price hikes. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, balancing the need for growth with inflation containment.
Challenges and Risks Despite
The optimistic projections, several risks could hinder the budget’s success:
o Revenue Shortfalls : If the ambitious revenue targets are not met, it could exacerbate the fiscal deficit, leading to further borrowing and debt accumulation.
o Inflationary Pressures: The proposed tax adjustments and potential subsidy cuts could lead to higher inflation, impacting household purchasing power and overall economic stability.
o Political Stability: The effectiveness of the budget largely depends on political stability and the government’s ability to implement its policies without significant disruptions.
Pakistan’s 2024 budget reflects a concerted effort to navigate economic challenges while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. The stringent withholding tax and tightened regulations for filers and non-filers will likely drive the affluent segment of the population to leave the country, creating more difficulties for the business community. To bring stability and improvement within our country, we need to make doing business easier. Businessmen need more facilitation and fewer taxes. We must reduce the rates of electricity, water, and gas. If businessmen are preoccupied with paying hefty utility bills, how can they manage their company’s overheads? Naturally, this burden will be passed on to the consumers. It is essential to implement better policies within the country to alleviate these challenges. The focus on revenue generation, social welfare, and infrastructure development is commendable. However, effective implementation and management of associated risks will be crucial to achieving the desired outcomes. As we move forward, continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies will be essential to ensure that the budgetary goals translate into tangible economic improvements for the nation.

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