Gold price rises by Rs3,000 a tola for 2nd week

ISLAMABAD: Gold price in the country surged for the second consecutive week by Rs3,000 (+1.38 percent) in line with an uptick in the international rate, after increasing by Rs1,200 (+0.56 percent) per tola in the preceding week.
The gold rate for a single tola of 24-karat increased to Rs219,800 from Rs216,800, according to the data shared by Karachi Sarafa Association and All Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).
Similarly, the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold closed at Rs188,443 against Rs185,871 at the start of the week, reflecting an increase of Rs2,572. Following suit, the price of 10 grams of 22-karat gold surged to Rs172,740 during the week.
The Pakistani rupee continued making slight gains against the US dollar for the sixth week in a row and improved by 73 paisas in the interbank market and 50 paisas in the open market. Since gold is denominated in the US dollars, when the local unit appreciates against the greenback, the value of gold in the local market decreases if all other factors remain the same. As global gold prices remained on an upward trend during the week under review, the price of yellow metal went up relatively lower in the country during the week as compared to the global market.
In global markets, gold closed the week at $2,052.80 per ounce against $2,019.90 in the preceding week, showing a week-on-week increase of $32.90 (+1.63 percent) and surging to three-week high.
Gold prices advanced during the week as the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported softer-than-anticipated core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index report for November. Monthly core PCE price index data grew at a slower pace of 0.1 percent against expectations and the former reading of 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, the underlying inflation data decelerated to 3.2 percent versus consensus of 3.3 percent and the former print of 3.5 percent. In the monetary policy statement of December, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers projected that PCE inflation, their preferred inflation tool, would decelerate to 3.2 percent by the end of 2023.
More-than-projected decline in the core PCE data may boost expectations of early interest rates unwinding by the Fed. Market participants have been betting in favour of early rate cuts by the Fed due to significant improvement in the Consumer Price Index towards the 2 percent target. Gold price extended its uptrend and rose to a fresh multi-week high as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stayed in negative territory below 3.9 percent.
From a technical perspective, the occurrence of a golden cross, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing the 200-day SMA from below, supports prospects for additional gains. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory. Hence, some follow-through move towards testing the next relevant hurdle, around the $2,072-2,073 region, looks like a possibility, above which the gold price could aim to reclaim the $2,100 round figure.
On the flip side, any meaningful corrective pullback could find decent support and attract fresh buyers near the $2,028-2,027 area. This should help limit the downside for the gold price near the $2,017 horizontal zone. That said, a convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and make the gold price vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the $2,000 psychological mark. This is closely followed by the 50-day SMA, currently around the $1,994 area. – TLTP