KARACHI, March 20, 2025 – The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surged on Wednesday as investor confidence soared following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) staff-level agreement with Pakistan for a $1.3 billion package.
The KSE-100 Index jumped 1,139.15 points (0.98%), closing at 117,772.31. The session saw a high of 118,220.88 and a low of 117,178.23, reflecting strong market optimism.
Key Drivers of the Surge
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IMF Staff-Level Agreement
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The IMF finalized a 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for Pakistan.
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The first review of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was completed.
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Upon Executive Board approval, Pakistan will receive an immediate $1 billion tranche, increasing total disbursements to $2 billion.
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The IMF acknowledged Pakistan’s macroeconomic improvements despite global challenges.
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Reko Diq Project Update
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OGDC and PPL announced the completion of an updated feasibility study for the Reko Diq mining project.
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The study confirmed a 37-year mine life with a $5.6 billion Phase 1 investment set to begin in 2028.
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The total estimated production includes 13.1 million tonnes of copper and 17.9 million ounces of gold.
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This development fueled a rally in energy and exploration stocks.
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Market Outlook and Economic Indicators
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Inflation Projections
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The Ministry of Finance forecasts CPI inflation to rise to 2–3% in April, up from 1–1.5% in March.
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February year-on-year inflation was 1.5%, significantly down from 23.1% in February 2024.
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Oil Sector Struggles
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A sales tax exemption introduced in the 2024 Finance Act has hit the oil and refinery industry, leading to estimated losses of Rs35 billion.
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Refineries and oil marketing companies face challenges due to their inability to claim input tax.
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The new petroleum minister has yet to address industry concerns, delaying refinery upgrade agreements with OGRA.
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Previous Market Trends
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Tuesday’s Session
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The KSE-100 index had already hinted at positive momentum, closing up 193.55 points (0.17%) at 116,633.17.
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The session’s high was 116,904.55, while the low touched 115,877.88.
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Conclusion
The IMF deal has injected fresh optimism into the stock market, stabilizing investor sentiment. With additional foreign investment interest in Reko Diq and economic reforms underway, the PSX is expected to maintain positive momentum in the coming sessions. However, challenges in inflation control and the oil sector remain key areas of concern.
