ISLAMABAD – June 5, 2025:
Chief Statistician of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Dr. Naeemuz Zafar, on Thursday defended the recently reported 2.68% GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2024-25, amidst growing criticism and skepticism over the methodology and assumptions used to arrive at the figure.
Speaking at a press conference alongside Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal at P Block, Dr. Zafar emphasized that the growth figures were compiled in line with international standards set by the United Nations and the IMF, and would likely not undergo major revisions.
Defending the Methodology
Dr. Zafar acknowledged that the livestock sector’s growth was estimated using outdated data from the 2005-06 livestock census, and that growth in the electricity sector was projected using budgeted figures, rather than actual performance metrics.
However, he maintained that these practices fall within acceptable international statistical norms, adding that Pakistan is in the process of updating its GDP base year from 2015-16 to 2025-26, with surveys already underway to support the transition.
On the proposal to form a committee of independent experts to review the growth numbers, he stated:
“That decision lies with the government, but we are prepared to defend our figures at any platform.”
Questions Over Agriculture and Construction Figures
The GDP figure of 2.68% has triggered criticism, particularly in relation to the agriculture sector, where major crops saw a 13% decline. The sector’s overall performance was reported at 0.56% growth, largely due to a stronger showing in livestock – a discrepancy that raised concerns among economists.
Additionally, skeptics have pointed out that the GDP growth in the first three quarters averaged just 1.7%, and that the projection appears to rely on a sudden and substantial 5.3% growth in the final quarter – a leap many consider unrealistic without concrete evidence of economic acceleration.
The construction and electricity sectors alone accounted for 1 percentage point of the total growth figure. Without these, the GDP growth rate would drop to 1.7%, casting further doubt on the headline number. The construction sector’s reported performance was based on higher utilisation of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) funds.
Revisions Expected by Year-End
The current GDP figures are based on quarterly estimates, and the next meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled for October or November 2025. At that time, the growth rate for the first quarter of FY 2025-26 will be announced, and revisions to the current year’s numbers may also be made once more complete data is available.
Poverty and Unemployment Data Coming
On a separate note, Dr. Zafar addressed concerns about delays in poverty and unemployment data. He explained that the PBS had been preoccupied with the population census and other major assignments, but that the poverty and labour force surveys are now in progress.
“The latest data on poverty and unemployment will be available by October or November,” he said.
