The shadow diplomacy refers to an unofficial and informal efforts made by the non-state actors, insurgents, parallel government whether or not in power and any other actor that do not qualify for the conventional diplomatic engagement. Given the diplomatic blackout of the interim government in Kabul over human rights violation, Taliban have started using this tactics in order to overcome the isolation and normalize their relations with the regional powers. The main tool in this regard is their strategic use of mineral resources. Although the concept may seem new in the context of Afghanistan, Taliban had a long history of using the parallel channels since they were over thrown by the U.S. in 2001. While this “de facto” diplomacy offers promising returns for Kabul, it has certain humanitarian implications.
As Barnett Rubin puts in, during the late 1999s, Taliban realized the need to match battlefield success with the political acceptance from the great and middle powers. They successfully blended ethno-nationalism, Islamic ideology, and geopolitical realism in their external linkages to gain leverage. Their international political office or famously known as Doha Office simultaneously engaged Pakistan, Russia, the United States, and the EU during the final phase of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Their quasi-representation status (government in waiting narrative), track 1.5 and 2.0 diplomacy, and selective promise of anti-terror measures can be attributed as a diplomatic milestone of Taliban’s shadow diplomacy.
However, the evolving geopolitical situation – particularly after the fall of Kabul, human rights violation, and importantly a permanent ban on girl’s education – has made it difficult for Afghanistan to gain acceptance from the democratic states, particularly from the western hemisphere. After realizing this need, Taliban are playing an old card now-a-days. But, the main difference this time is the tools they are using. As compared to past, they are utilizing the tangible resources (unexplored minerals) of their country to gain de facto or unofficial acceptance from the regional powers such as Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and China.
The estimated value of these mineral resources exceeds $1 trillian which includes lithium, copper, oil, gemstones and other rare earth metals. Recently, China has signed a $540 million with Afghanistan. It includes 25 years contract that includes oil extraction. Similarly, China is trying to revive the delayedMes Aynak cooper mining project with Taliban. Besides that, given the lead role of China in the green energy, Lithium extraction deals are also under review.
India is also looking forward to secure iron, uranium, and cooper deals with Taliban. The growing ambition to become a third-largest economy has reshaped India’s ties with Taliban, something unusual because of New Delhi’s earlier position. India may consider a political rapprochement with Taliban given its broken narrative of conventional superiority in the recent Pak-India escalations. Iran and Russia are also approaching Taliban to secure gas and energy exploration.
For instance, in May 2025, Russian companyIntiko Group secured an oil extraction deal with Taliban. Moscow is also concerned of the resurgence of IS-K. Good relations with Taliban will help Russia ensure that Afghanistan’s soil is not being used for the terrorism in Russia. Iran, with already strong footprints in the western provinces of Afghanistan, is seeking energy and infrastructure projects with Taliban. Pakistan, given its TAPI and CASA-100 projects, and 2030 SGD goals, also seeks mineral deal with Taliban despite geographical proximities.
Taliban’s are well-aware of this fact and they are using the mineral wealth of their country in a strategic ways. For instance, it has established ambassador level relations with at least 4 regional states. It has also secured a participation in CPEC that will help Afghanistan to connect with Sea. Moreover, the mineral extraction has created more than 1, 50,000 local jobs in war-torn Afghanistan, something commendable given the limitation of its income resources.
Interestingly, Afghanistan is reluctant to make commitment to any foreign actor in order to avoid monopolization of its resources and has tactically used its wealth to revive its relations with the neighboring states. It has enabled Afghanistan to bypass the western sections and attract like-minded states.
Despite pragmatic appeal, it has political implications. Neglecting human rights violation and hardcore interpretation of governance in Afghanistan may affect the pressure tactics on Taliban. It is unlikely that Kabul will accept the demand of reviving girl’s education and freedom once it became a Neo-Normal. Instead, states must make conditional deals with Taliban in order to ensure that universal and basis human rights in Afghanistan are secured. Otherwise, this geopolitical neglect has grave implications for the local population.
