Threat of war is once again looming over the region, in view of possible military action against Iran by United States and Israel. Israeli warplanes flying close to Iranian border in recent days have further aggravated the situation, and any Israeli military adventure could produce dangerous consequences. Hence outbreak of a wider war cannot be ruled out, potentially drawing the entire region into a conflict whose effects could extend beyond Middle East and affect the global economy. As per New York Times, United States and Israel have drawn up plans to target Iran’s nuclear programme, missile installations and energy infrastructure. The forthcoming elections in Israel and United States are also being viewed as factors behind these plans. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to attack Iran to revive his declining popularity and reinforce the perception that Israel needs a hardline, hawkish leader like him to safeguard its security. The US president has already described him as a “warrior prime minister.” According to reports, Netanyahu had been pressuring Israeli army chief to launch another attack on Iran before the general elections. However, he faced strong resistance from the army chief, who maintained that an attack on Iran before elections could trigger a war with Iran.
On the other hand, United States has been steadily increasing its naval presence in Middle East. Recently, a third aircraft carrier, USS Roosevelt, was dispatched towards the region and could enter its waters at any time. For US President Donald Trump, launching an attack on Iran before midterm elections would not be in American interests as another war could escalate oil prices and inflation both globally and within United States, a burden that American public may be unwilling to bear.
Middle East holds exceptional importance for global energy supplies and international trade. Oil and gas facilities, ports, airports and commercial shipping routes could all be affected by any major conflict. The consequences of war would not remain confined to the battlefield; they would also affect global energy markets, investment, tourism and economic development throughout the region. A new US-Israeli military campaign could lead to further attacks on American installations in Gulf countries. This, in turn, could threaten Strait of Hormuz, increase risks to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, disrupt energy exports and raise maritime transportation costs, thereby affecting global trade. Iran has already warned that its response would not be limited to commercial shipping and energy infrastructure. Military installations in the region and undersea internet cables could also become potential targets. US and Israel’s strategy is based on the assumption that intense bombing will force Iran to surrender, bring down the Iranian government, and compel Iranian leaders to accept American demands. However, this assumption is little more than wishful thinking. Despite previous military operations and economic pressure, Iran has continued to fight back United States and Israel.
Current crisis is significant for Pakistan in several respects. Countries like Pakistan, which meet a substantial portion of their energy requirements through imported oil, could face mounting economic pressure. Rising oil prices, higher freight costs, possible fluctuations in remittances and declining investor confidence could all adversely affect the national economy. If energy prices rise in international markets, Pakistan could experience a widening trade deficit, pressure on its foreign exchange reserves and further inflation. A new regional war could compound the economic challenges the country is already facing. It is essential for Pakistan and international community to recognize the current scenario in Middle East which cannot be dismissed as merely a regional dispute. A decision taken in Middle East today could have far-reaching consequences for international security tomorrow. Preventing spread of war is not the responsibility of any single country or region; it is a shared responsibility of the entire international community. In this context, diplomatic engagement of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, countries part of the Makkah Agreement, and their contacts with the Iranian leadership represent an important development. Without such efforts, the entire region could have been drawn into war.
As per credible reports, Netanyahu was planning a major and devastating attack on Iran on the eve of Israeli elections in an attempt to rescue his declining popularity. However, the diplomatic efforts of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Pakistan’s proposals prompted the member countries of the Makkah Agreement to mobilize diplomatically, travel to Iran and alert Iranian leadership about the danger. The presence in Iran of representatives from countries party to the Makkah Defence Agreement is being viewed as a diplomatic intervention that may have thwarted Netanyahu’s plans. In this way, Middle East may have been spared a major catastrophe.
