The key question for Academics and foreign policy practitioners is whether “the second Trump administration’s (Trump-2) attacks on the existing institutions and US alliances that were pillars of the Pax Americana are real or just one of the periodic disruptions.” Some speculate that as the world order is not a real fixed matter, we may not know its actual impact in the near future.
Unpredictability and beyond
President Trump’s considered greatest asset is his unpredictability. Yet, his spontaneous tariff threats and mass firings of federal employees may lead to unmanaged ligations that have the potential to trigger a massive US recession. This can have serious consequences for the US and the international economy. Interestingly, experts agree that the cost of tariff uncertainty is growing very visible, especially in the continuing sell-off for US stocks. It’s getting clearer that potential revenue gains are much lower than originally thought and lobbying for a change of course (resistance) is garnering momentum.
President Donald Trump’s speeches during the election and post-election actions cast serious doubts on the future of the existing world order. In speeches and the US moves at the international forum, the US administration’s support for Russian action in Ukraine, is creating panic. Plus, wide-ranging tariff threats (some are already in place) have raised question marks on the future of the US regional alliances and of the global trading system. The US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO) has the great potential to undermine US leadership in the developing world. China and other actors will try to occupy this space.
Threat to World Peace
Imagine the serious implications of a superpower like the US; isolated, looking inwardly, and disconnected from World affairs. It can encourage some budding regional powers to exploit the situation and expand their influence in their region and beyond. It is now for Europe to show a greater unity and establish its leadership in the World affairs. Similarly, it is easy to imagine that China will be asserting itself more in Asia, a possible headache for some of its neighbors.
In fact, the upcoming change in the leadership will affect many, because the relationships among states and other major regional players are interconnected. This new situation will alter the existing distribution of power. The emerging international order may lead to radical changes as the predominant power’s domestic compulsion is shifting rapidly. That situation has the potential to create an unstable order that could lead to wars and chaos.
Past World orders
The 18th-century French Revolution disrupted the monarchical and traditional system that had long sustained the European balance of power. The French pursuit of empire ultimately failed after Napoleon retreated from Moscow, yet it resulted in the creation of new states. This led to the first deliberate efforts to create a modern state system, at the 1815 Congress of Vienna. In the post-Vienna period, Europe suffered many disruptions most importantly, in 1848, the nationalist revolutions of Europe. Following these upheavals, Germany launched various wars and assumed a powerful central position in the region.
Then came World War I, which was followed by the Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations. Their failure led to World War II. The creation of the United Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, etc.) marked the most important institution-building in the twentieth century. Since the US was the dominant player, the post-1945 era became known as the “American Century.” The end of the Cold War in 1991 produced a unipolar distribution of power, allowing for the creation or strengthening of institutions such as the WTO, the International Criminal Court, and the Paris Climate Agreement.
Even before Trump, some analysts believed that this American order was coming to an end. The twenty-first century had brought another shift in the distribution of power, usually described as the rise (or more accurately, the recovery) of Asia. While Asia had accounted for the largest share of the world economy in the 1700s, it fell behind Europe after the Industrial Revolution in the West. It, like other regions, suffered from the new imperialism (colonization) that Western military and communications technologies had made possible.
Now, Asia is reclaiming its status as the leading source of global economic output. But its recent gains have come more at the expense of Europe rather than the US. Despite some weakening, the US still represents one-quarter of global GDP, as it did in the 1970s. While China has shrunk the US lead substantially, it has not surpassed the US economically, militarily, or in terms of its alliances.
If the international order is eroding, America’s domestic politics are as much of a cause as China’s rise. The question is whether we are entering a totally new period of American decline, or whether the second Trump administration’s attacks on the American Century’s institutions and alliances will prove to be another cyclical dip?
Immediate reactions and dangers
The Canadian province of Ontario which exports electricity to the US raised power prices by 25% in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. It directed its grid operator, to add a C$10 ($7) per megawatt-hour surcharge to all power exported to Minnesota, Michigan, and New York. Though largely symbolic, the move is emblematic of the intensifying blowback the US is feeling over Trump’s scattershot tariff strategy.
In the previous decade, faced with the increasingly assertive behavior of a rising China, several countries in the Indo-Pacific set out to strengthen their security cooperation with the United States. But over the same period, the US willingness to uphold long-standing alliances became shrouded in uncertainty. The last two weeks have rendered any agreements among the United States and its allies downright tenuous.
Where does that leave the so-called middle powers, especially those with everything to lose from a full-blown Asian conflict-such as Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam? Some of these countries, and especially Singapore, have shown they would prefer to shape a multi-aligned and multi-networked world. Most of the middle Asian powers find the geopolitical situation very difficult. That may have been a good bet, because other countries, such as Australia, are wondering if their partnerships with the United States are worth anything anymore.
The 2021 AUKUS security deal was a targeted strategy to blunt China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. It entailed Australia acquiring eight submarines from the United Kingdom and the United States in exchange for multibillion-dollar investments in those countries’ naval shipbuilding industries.
Recently, Elbridge Colby, US President Donald Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, said that he was worried about a key component of that deal: Selling nuclear-powered submarines to Australia could leave US sailors “vulnerable,” Colby said because the vessels won’t be “in the right place in the right time.” (Trump is yet to state his position on AUKUS-but he seems to be a bit confused.)
Australia’s relations with the United States are in a balance. It should take heed of former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo H. Daalder’s advice to Europe: “It’s time for a new trans-Atlantic bargain, one where Europe takes primary responsibility for security on the continent” and maybe beyond.
The Middle East
The most dangerous and uncertain situation prevails in the Middle East. The ruling elite there needs the US umbrella for their security in the turbulent region. Trump wants to promote himself as a maker. Yet his leanings toward Israel are no secret but can President Trump lead it to endless wars? His half-cooked-failed Middle East Peace Plan from his previous presidency is one such good example. His suggestions of moving Palestinians out of Gaza and making way for commercial development have been rejected even by his close regional allies namely Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. He has no well-considered solutions for the poly crisis in the Middle East.
Conclusion
With Trump-2 and his shock strategies, the world has entered a crucial phase that could lead to confusion, chaos, and maybe wars. Navigating today’s tumultuous geopolitics will require new strategies built around resilience and adaptability. The international trade appears to be its first causality. Donald Trump’s desire to drive a wedge between Russia and China may look tempting but it is rather difficult. China’s rise is real and cannot be wished away. Russia is treading cautiously especially after its knee-jerk Ukraine reaction leading to the attack on Ukraine. EU and many US allies are in for testing times. We are in for interesting times.
