“The next world war may not be fought over land or oil – but water.”
– Ismail Serageldin, former Vice President of the World Bank
In a world where global politics is shifting rapidly, the question is no longer who owns more land or oil – but who controls the rivers. Nowhere is this question more urgent than in South Asia, where India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors, share the Indus Basin – one of the world’s most strategically significant and contested river systems.
Beneath the headlines dominated by diplomacy, drone strikes, and border tensions, a quieter, potentially more dangerous conflict is unfolding – not through bullets or bombs, but through dams, diversions, and data. These rivers are not just water sources; they are the lifeblood of agriculture, energy, and survival for millions. The stakes are no longer just regional – they are existential.
India’s drive to meet renewable energy goals has accelerated the construction of hydropower projects on the western rivers flowing into Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan’s dependence on these waters for irrigation and food security makes any upstream development a matter of national concern. While both nations are acting in perceived self-interest, their competition over shared rivers is framed by an outdated treaty that does not account for the realities of the 21st century: climate change, glacial melt, rising populations and groundwater stress.
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, once celebrated for surviving wars and crises, now struggles under the weight of modern environmental challenges. The lack of adaptive clauses and transparent communication mechanisms has turned technical disagreements into political flashpoints. But within this challenge lies an opportunity: to reimagine the management of the Indus Basin not as a zero-sum game, but as a model of shared responsibility.
The Role of Researchers – Changing Mindsets Through Knowledge: To engage Indian counterparts constructively, Pakistani researchers can:
= Present data-based analysis showing the risks of long-term unilateral water development.
= Highlight shared climate threats (e.g., Himalayan glacier retreat) that require joint scientific collaboration.
= Propose treaty modernization through academic forums, suggesting real-time data sharing, joint monitoring stations, and climate adaptation strategies.
= Host bilateral research dialogues to humanize water issues-turning technical conflicts into shared human stories.
We must frame water as a mutual survival issue, not a nationalistic tool. This means resisting media rhetoric and working toward academic, science-based discourse.
From Conflict to Collaboration Water may symbolize power today, but in the future, it must symbolize cooperation, adaptation, and peace. As a Research student, I aim to ask: Can we – India and Pakistan – redefine power not as control over water, but as the ability to manage it together? If this question can reach Indian academics, policy thinkers, and the wider civil society, perhaps the mindset shift will begin – not through politics, but through shared scientific understanding.
We must act before river flows turn into political floods. I hope this article sparks not just awareness, but dialogue. Through research, transparency, and mutual respect, we can transform water from a cause of fear into a foundation for future peace.
The Indus cannot be owned by one nation. It is a living system, flowing across human boundaries and natural landscapes. If India and Pakistan treat the Indus as a zero-sum game, both will lose – not only water, but opportunities for regional peace, food security, and climate resilience.
I do not ask India to surrender control. I ask for shared vision. If Europe – with centuries of war – can become borderless, why can’t we make our rivers borderless in management, if not geography? Water is power – but also peace. The choice is ours.
