World Statistics Day – 20 October: Viz a viz NFC award of Pakistan

Every five years, on 20 October, the world marks World Statistics Day (“WSD”), a global observance designated by the United Nations Statistical Commission and promoted by the United Nations Statistics Division, to highlight the importance of statistics – reliable data – for societies, economies and decision-making.  The first WSD was celebrated on 20 October 2010.  The upcoming 2025 observance emphasises the theme “Quality statistics and data for everyone”.

Why do we need such a day? In a world of rapid change – demographic shifts, digital transformation, climate change, economic shocks, pandemics – policy-makers, businesses, civil society and citizens all need credible, timely, disaggregated data to understand what’s going on, to craft responses, and to hold governments accountable. As noted by the UN, “Trusted statistics enable policymakers, businesses and citizens to navigate complexity and make informed decisions.”

In many countries, including Pakistan, the usefulness of statistical systems becomes particularly visible when it comes to equitable distribution of resources, monitoring development, and ensuring governance transparency. When data are weak, incomplete, or outdated, policies may be built on shaky foundations; some regions or groups may get left behind; inefficiencies and misallocations creep in. WSD, therefore, serves as a reminder: good statistics matter, and strengthening national statistical systems is a public-good investment.

In Pakistan’s context, strengthened statistics directly support fiscal federalism, inter-governmental transfers, and development planning. One relevant mechanism is the National Finance Commission Award (NFC Award), through which the federal government shares revenue with the provinces. To allocate funds fairly and effectively, a strong database is essential. This brings us to the next point: implications of World Statistics Day in Pakistan, especially as they touch on the NFC Award process.

In Pakistan: Implications for the NFC Awards

Pakistan is a federation composed of four provinces, federally administered areas, and the Islamabad Capital Territory. Most revenue is collected centrally and then redistributed both vertically (federal to provinces) and horizontally (among provinces). The NFC Award is a constitutional mechanism under Article 160 of the Constitution that determines the share of provinces in federal revenues, normally for a five-year cycle.

Here is how better statistical systems – and WSD’s call for them – matter to the NFC process:

1. Data for formula design: The NFC formula uses parameters such as population, poverty, backwardness, revenue generation, land area, and sometimes inverse population density. For example, in 2025 experts proposed a formula with 60 % weight on population, 15 % on poverty and backwardness, 5 % on inverse population density, 15 % on a Provincial Performance Index (PPI) and 5 % on climate/resilience infrastructure.  For these parameters to be credible, up-to-date statistics are indispensable.

2. Monitoring and transparency: Provinces and the federal government need to monitor outcomes (how provincial allocations relate to service delivery, poverty reduction, etc.). Reliable statistics allow monitoring whether resource transfers are achieving the intended effect. WSD emphasises “data for everyone” so that civil society, academia, and the public can scrutinise resource flows and outcomes.

3. Reducing fiscal imbalances: Historically, Pakistan has faced vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances: the centre collects most revenue, provinces carry many expenditure burdens, and provinces differ widely in needs and capacities. Statistics help identify these imbalances, quantify them, and feed them into the NFC Award. Research (e.g., from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, PIDE) highlights that “Fiscal resource distribution in Pakistan has never proved easy… which is worrisome.”

4. Policy-making beyond the formula: Good statistics let policymakers refine provincial formulas, incorporate new parameters (e.g., climate vulnerability, urbanisation, service delivery performance), and respond to changing realities. As Pakistan moves toward wider reforms (taxation, decentralisation, digitalisation), data-driven decision-making becomes even more crucial.

Hence, when Pakistan marks World Statistics Day, the message is particularly relevant: improving the statistical infrastructure strengthens the foundation upon which fiscal federalism rests. It enhances trust, makes the NFC Award process more defensible, and allows for better resource allocation matching needs and capacities.

Merits and Demerits: Let us examine, in the context of Pakistan and the NFC Award, the merits and demerits of emphasising statistics (as WSD calls for) in resource distribution.

Merits: Fairer and more transparent distribution: With robust data, the allocation of resources to provinces becomes more defendable on objective terms (population, poverty, backwardness, service delivery). This strengthens legitimacy and reduces inter-provincial tensions.

Targeting need and performance: Data allow for incorporating not just need (e.g., poor districts) but also performance (e.g., provinces that deliver well) into the formula. This can incentivise improvements in governance and service delivery.

Evidence-based policymaking: Decisions on major transfers, infrastructure investments, or reforms can be grounded in up-to-date evidence rather than ad-hoc negotiation. This aligns with global calls under WSD for “quality statistics and data for everyone”.

Accountability and monitoring: With disaggregated statistics available to the public, civil society can monitor whether funds are reaching where intended and whether outcomes (health, education, infrastructure) are improving. Transparency enhances governance.

Adaptability to change: Strong statistical systems can detect shifts – population growth, urbanisation, migration, climate impacts – allowing formulas and budgets to adjust. Pakistan’s evolving landscape (floods, climate shocks, demographic change) demands this adaptability.

Demerits / Challenges: Data deficiencies and lag: Pakistan suffers from periodic delays in census data, non-uniform data across provinces, and weak sub-provincial (district/tehsil) statistics Without up-to-date data, any formula may be outdated or skewed. For example, many allocation formulas still rely on the 1998 census for provincial weightings.

Complexity and undermining simplicity: Incorporating many data-driven parameters (performance indices, climate vulnerability, service delivery) may improve accuracy but also complicate the formula, making it less transparent and harder for public scrutiny.

Data quality and comparability issues: Differences in data collection standards, delays in publication, and political interference in statistics can undermine trust. If provinces believe data are manipulated, the NFC process can lose credibility.

Incentive distortions: Performance-based metrics can create perverse incentives – e.g., provinces focusing on improving measured indicators rather than real outcomes or misreporting to gain higher shares.

Resource-intensive statistical infrastructure: Building and maintaining high-quality data systems (surveys, censuses, geospatial data, digitisation) require funding, technical capacity, and institutional independence – which Pakistan may find challenging given competing budget priorities.

Political resistance: Provinces may resist data-driven changes that reduce their shares, especially if they feel disadvantaged by new parameters. The NFC process is inherently political. Indeed, the 7th NFC Award (notified in 2010) has been extended repeatedly because of formula disagreements.

In sum, while emphasising strong statistics in resource distribution is highly advantageous, it is not a panacea: the challenges of data production, institutional capacity, and political economy cannot be ignored.

Recommendations for Better Distribution of Resources: Drawing on the principles underlying World Statistics Day (quality data, inclusivity, transparency) and the Pakistani context of the NFC Award, the following recommendations may help improve resource distribution:

1. Update underlying data more frequently

Conduct or finalise the next census/micro-census and update population, household, poverty, and service delivery statistics at provincial and ideally district level.

Develop infrastructure to provide more regular statistical updates (annual household surveys and administrative data systems) rather than relying on very old base years.

Ensure data on backwardness, poverty, urban/rural divides, and climate vulnerability are routinely collected so that the formula reflects current realities.

2. Refine the NFC formula to incorporate more equitable and dynamic parameters

As proposed by experts, maintain population as the major weight (e.g., ~60 %), but complement it with measurable backwardness/poverty (~15 %), inverse population density (~5 %), a performance index (~15 -20 %), and a resilience/climate-infrastructure indicator (~5 %).

Performance index should cover service delivery (education, health, infrastructure) and revenue-raising capacity of provinces.

Resilience/climate dimension recognises Pakistan’s vulnerability to floods, droughts, and urbanisation – directing resources to build adaptive capacity.

3. Enhance data transparency and public access

Publish the data and methodology underlying the NFC formula in an accessible manner (e.g., online dashboards).

Encourage independent monitoring by academia, think-tanks (e.g., PIDE), and civil society. This reinforces trust and helps identify anomalous outcomes.

On World Statistics Day each five years, hold an open forum or webinar in Pakistan to engage stakeholders – reflecting the global WSD model of “24-hour webinar marathon” across regions.

4. Strengthen institutional capacity for statistics

Allocate adequate resources to the national statistical office, provincial bureaus, and to build capacity in data collection, data management, geospatial mapping, ICT integration, and analytics.

Provide training, foster partnerships with international statistical agencies and universities, and ensure statistical independence and professional standards.

Integrate administrative data sources (e-governance, tax records, health/education management information systems) for regular updating.

5. Ensure formula fairness and consensus-building

Use the data-driven approach as a basis for negotiation, not as a substitute for political consensus. Provinces must feel the allocation process is legitimate.

Hold pre-award consultations with provinces, include them in data-review committees, and release draft formulas with feedback mechanisms.

Consider transitional arrangements if a new formula significantly alters shares: e.g., phased implementation over a few years to avoid abrupt shocks.

6. Monitor outcomes and adjust over time

Beyond allocating funds, track how provincial allocations translate into outcomes (poverty reduction, infrastructure, service delivery).

Use statistical dashboards to monitor if provinces are using transfers efficiently and effectively; feed findings into subsequent NFC cycles.

Adjust formula weights and parameters periodically to reflect changing national priorities (e.g., climate adaptation, urbanisation, digital economy).

7. Promote data literacy and stakeholder engagement

Recognise that “data for everyone” means that not only experts but citizens, media, and provincial governments understand and use data. WSD emphasises this inclusivity.

Run awareness?campaigns (especially around 20 October each five years) to explain how resource allocation is determined, why the formula matters, and what role citizens can play.

Conclusion: In an era defined by uncertainty, rapid change, and evolving challenges, the relevance of statistics can not be overstated. The celebration of World Statistics Day on 20 October underscores the essential role that reliable, transparent, accessible data play in shaping equitable, evidence-based policies.

For Pakistan, the implications of WSD resonate deeply. The distribution of federal resources via the NFC Award depends fundamentally on the integrity, timeliness, and relevance of underlying statistics. When population counts are outdated, when poverty and service-delivery data are incomplete, when provincial capacities diverge but remain unmeasured, the risk is that the resource-sharing regime will drift toward political negotiation rather than objective allocation.

Yet the opportunity is clear: by strengthening statistical systems, enhancing transparency, refining formulas and building consensus, Pakistan can utilise the NFC mechanism not merely as a mandatory constitutional process but as a dynamic tool for inclusive development, reducing disparities, and reinforcing federal-provincial cooperation.

The merits of such a data-driven approach are compelling: fairness, accountability, performance orientation, and adaptability. But attention must also be paid to the demerits and challenges: data gaps, institutional weaknesses, potential complexity, incentive mis-alignment, and the politics of redistribution.

As Pakistan commemorates World Statistics Day, policymakers, statisticians, academics, and citizens alike should take stock of both where the country stands and where it must go. The recommendations above provide a roadmap: update data more frequently, refine the formula with equity and performance in mind, open data to the public, build institutional capacity, foster provincial collaboration, monitor outcomes and engage citizens.

Ultimately, when every citizen – from remote districts of Balochistan to urban centres of Punjab, from the hills of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to the fields of Sindh – has reliable data that reflect their lives, and when resource transfers respond to those data, then the promise of fiscal federalism becomes real. On 20 October, as we join the world in celebrating statistics, let us remember that behind every number is a human story, and behind every allocation is an opportunity to deliver for the people.

Let this WSD serve not just as a symbolic commemoration but as a renewed impetus for Pakistan to build a system of statistics and fiscal transfers that is truly “for everyone” – just, transparent and forward-looking.