The past few weeks have unveiled a dangerous convergence of regional crises. While Israel and Iran spiral into retaliatory warfare under the shadow of Operation True Promise, South Asia too teeters on the edge following the Indian government’s temporary pause in its controversial Operation Sindoor. This so-called “pause” masks an unsettling shift – one where proxy warfare and covert destabilization efforts may define the next chapter in India-Pakistan relations.
In such volatile terrain, Pakistan finds itself caught in the crossfire of ideologies, regional power struggles, and covert intelligence operations. The escalating Indo-Iranian-Israeli dynamics, though separated by geography, are deeply interlinked by global politics, arms diplomacy, and the weaponization of state narratives.
Sindoor’s Shadow Proxy Play and Pakistan’s Internal SecurityIndia’s suspension of military aggression under Operation Sindoor has done little to ease Islamabad’s security concerns. Instead, statements from Baloch insurgent groups pledging support to India have revived the spectre of foreign-sponsored terrorism. The open calls for collaboration from the Balochistan Liberation Front’s appeal to India, Iran, and Afghanistan, to the BLA’s overt endorsements, suggest a deeper geopolitical coordination in play.
The threat becomes even more complex when viewed through the lens of religiously motivated militancy. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) ambiguous sympathies toward India and criticism of Pakistan’s military during the Sindoor episode underscore how strategic alliances are shifting. With past confessions like that of Latif Mehsud and intelligence gathered from Kulbhushan Jadhav’s operations, the lines between insurgency and statecraft grow increasingly blurred.
The Israel-Iran Front Echoes in South Asia. The simultaneous flare-up of tensions in the Middle East, where Israel’s strikes on Iranian targets have led to retaliatory missile barrages, is not isolated from South Asia’s security equation. These conflicts have emboldened the doctrine of preemptive warfare and legitimized aggression under the guise of “national defense.” It is a precedent Pakistan cannot afford to ignore.
The involvement of global powers like the United States and the strategic silence of others reveals the selective moral compass of international diplomacy. In both the India-Pakistan and Israel-Iran theaters, terms like “terrorism” and “self-defense” are used not as universal standards but as politically expedient tools. If Israel claims the right to strike across borders, citing existential threats, what stops India from making the same claim tomorrow?
Three Fronts of Strategic Response: Pakistan must now think beyond reactive military postures. A three-tiered strategic recalibration is essential. Financial Disruption of Proxies: Curbing the flow of funds via hawala, cryptocurrency, and cross-border cash smuggling must become Pakistan’s top counterterrorism priority. The newly formed National AML/CFT Authority must not become another toothless bureaucracy – it must be empowered to operate beyond political cycles and across civil-military divides.
Border Surveillance and Intelligence Modernization: Porous borders with Afghanistan and Iran cannot remain a blind spot. Pakistan must reconfigure its intelligence apparatus with real-time monitoring, tech-driven border control, and human intelligence integration, especially in restive regions like Balochistan and KP.
Internal Political Cohesion: External threats thrive on internal fractures. Addressing ethnic, economic, and political grievances – especially in areas vulnerable to sub-nationalist recruitment-is no longer a matter of social justice but national security. The state must listen before others weaponize those unheard voices.
Global Diplomacy and the Hypocrisy of SilenceWhile Pakistan faces the threat of Indian-sponsored terrorism, the silence – or worse, indirect complicityof global actors raises difficult questions. Why is terrorism condemned when it threatens Western interests but rationalized when aimed at Pakistan under the guise of ‘freedom movements’?
The international community’s failure to call out India’s covert support for insurgency in Balochistan or the TTP echoes the same silence that enables Israel’s bombings in Tehran and Isfahan. Both conflicts are framed through the lens of the powerful, reducing nations like Pakistan and Iran to footnotes in a larger geopolitical chess game.
The Road AheadIt is clear that the post-Sindoor pause is not a peace offering – it is a repositioning. And in the background, the drums of war beat louder in West Asia. For Pakistan, this is a time to strengthen national unity, modernize its security doctrine, and invest in diplomacy that exposes the dual standards of global powers.
Peace may not be in our hands, but preparedness is. Complacency now is an invitation to catastrophe.
