We are past ten weeks in the war when the US-Israel imposed unprovoked war on Iran. This war has seriously impacted the global and regional economy through diminished energy exports, supply chain disruptions, air traffic stoppages, low tourism etc. This will eventually change the whole region and possibly act as a catalyst for a new Multi-polar World Order
Before, we dive into the on-going peace process negotiations and draw some lessons. it is important for us to understand Iranian culture, history, people, government and theology, as it will impact the peace process. Iran is a 7000 year old civilization with a rich historic and cultural traditions. Since adopting the Shia-ism (1525 AD), it has adopted a culture of resistance that is enshrined in its constitution, teaching and traditions. The US, Europe, Israel and the neighboring fiefdoms remains afraid of Iran due to its dominant nationalism and the revolutionary ideology.
There is also a long history of mistrust between Iran and the West, led by UK and USA. One might recall the UK’s role in installing the Pehlavi Dynasty (1921), toppling of the popular Prime Minister Mossadegh for nationalizing oil industry (1953) and the US long time support of King Reza Shah till his overthrow. The 1979 Revolution was actually a reaction to what the US and UK had done to Iran.
US Desires; Let us move to the US aims for war (Israel sole aim in this war is to permanently weaken Iran). The United States entered war with the stated goals; a) Regime change, b) Denuclearization c) Restraint on the Iranian drones & missiles and d) Control the Iranian proxies Hizbollah, Hamas, the Houtis etc. These goals remain elusive.
Negotiating History; Unlike the last time, during 2015, when negotiating on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran and the United States had very experienced negotiators duly supported by experts. This time the US negotiators appear less experienced and their understanding of Iran is also questionable. The US needs a better team of negotiators.
We will briefly discuss these one by one to understand where US stands after 8-week war.
Regime Change; In pursuit to this goal, what they got is a younger and more hard-line regime that is closely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This setup will not give concessions on key issues. The US aim of seeking regime change has backfired.
Denuclearization; The new regime resists giving up its Uranium or the right to enrichment. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT), Iran is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear technology. It has now become synonymous to Iranian sovereignty, so not open for for discussion.
Iranian Missile and Drones; US falsely claims that Iran possess missile that can hit its territory. Actually the US wants to keep Israel safe from Iranian missiles by a moratorium on its missile stockpile. Iran realizes that in wars 2025 and 2026 the missile-drones played a key role. They may agree to restricting numbers but will not abandon it.
Iranian Proxies; Iranian support to the proxies is iron clad. They consider them partners not a transactional type relationship. So Iran may curtail its support, temporarily, but not in the long term.
Many agree that the US walked into the war; a) Unprepared, b) without clear strategy, c) Unrealistic expectations and d) In someone else war. In modern negotiations, the super powers enters with a credible threat of force and clear goals (sort of Gun Boat Diplomacy). Unfortunately, President Donald Trump had no strategy and his tactics lacked deep understanding of the situation due to his transactional approach. This has shaken US regional allies, who were treated as a platform with their own security threatened.
Another war casualty was the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had warned in 2025 that it could close the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iran has learned how to control this waterway. The closure and possible tax will keep the cost of shipment high and crude prices will remain high.
The Iranian stiff resistance to US has made it a model for future asymmetric wars. New defense plans will devote more resources to drones and missiles. It could also lead to more countries seeking nuclear weapons as final defense against belligerent enemies. The US, in an attempt to control Iran’s nuclear program, not only failed but sent wrong message to other nuclear aspirant. `
Process Uptill now; Both the sides have presented maximilist positions during the marathon First Round at Islamabad. They are sticking to those delaying the Second Round. Apparently, the ceasefire is more desirable than peace.
The real issues that impact more than what is on the table is the mood swing of the US President and maneuvering of Israeli Prime Minister. As both has not been able to strike terror in the hearts of Iranians, so no pressure on Iran to accept unfavourable terms.
Win-Win Situation; In the absence of a win-win solution, it would be good for the US to reach a broad based understanding to show to its people and the world their President as a peace builder saving the World from a “nuclear winter.” Once a broad understanding is reached, the technical teams of the two side will sit down to hammer out details that may take months or even a year.
The Peace Guarantor; The most serious demands from Iran include a guarantee that aggression will not be imposed on it again. Finding a guarantor is very difficult. Both Russia and China may be reluctant or unacceptable to the US.
The safe keep, transfer or dilution of some 400 kg Iranian enriched Uranium remains a very tricky issue. The role and experience of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains critical. The IAEA believes that currently the Iranian uranium is buried in caves with its entrances blocked through bombing.
The US (a super power), seriously need to rein-in the Israeli PM if it wants to present itself as peace maker. The current order (or un-order), will be over hauled or removed as soon peace is established.
Finally, Strait of Hormuz presents a novel situation. Iran has realized a potent economic weapon within its reach. The US will need to keep it open for the sake of its allies and the Asian countries that depend on Gulf oil. The Strait will not be a toll booth as the Iranian think. Yet, Iranian will be reckoned as regional heavy weight with some say in the Strait’s management. The US wants to apply freedom of navigation through Hormuz but it is not a signatory of United Nation Law of Seas.
Conclusion: Finally, when an agreement is reached, it will be about principles and broad outlines. Yet, the Middle East will remain in disequilibrium for quite some time. This will negatively impact the US commitment to its allies. The middle powers will seek a bigger role. The US may assign some security duties to Israel and take a back seat. Israel with be more venerable and will have to take responsibility for its adventures. The US support to Israel will slowly be dwindled. Finally, EU and other middle powers will have responsibility towards designing a new security architecture.
