Dollars having their say. Social media is very active, so the actor’s .Prime Minister of Pakistan has rightly said that coming one month needs to be watched carefully and asked armed forces to be on full alert. Recent meeting with top brass of armed forces meant some serious business. India and Pakistan both being nuclear countries standing on fire that may engulf both the countries any time. It all depends on US as Modi cannot take independent decision.
India violated our air space and hit the so called terrorists headquarter and made tall claim of killing 300 terrorists belonging to Jaesh Muhammad but as seen by the world only 5 to 6 trees were damaged but India stuck to her claim but when asked to produce evidence failed to do so and brought disgrace to their wild claim as a result Modi had very tough time from different politicians including his own and the same happened with Indian air chief. Pakistan retaliated and shot down two aircrafts and captured one of their pilot who landed in our territory, and shown to the entire world and later on released as a gesture of peace by Prime Minister Imran Khan. This gesture has been appreciated the world over. But our enemies within and outside trying to build up narrative as if his release was under threat, it is all nonsense. Let us not dance on enemy tunes
My question is where is deterrence? India and Pakistan both nuclear state with sufficient stock to destroy each other. Both broke the barriers of deterrence and attacked each other. Conclusion No 1. Both not pushed about deterrence. Conclusion No 2 . Both countries can grapple showing no concern about deterrence and world opinion. Conclusion No 3.Both will not involve in nuclear exercise. Conclusion No 4. Option of only conventional war lay open. Pakistan is not interested to go to war and all the time extending hand of friendship and talking of peace but India not resiprocating instead threatening to take revenge. Modi having suffered enough humiliation is mentally disturbed and wants to take revenge to satisfy masses. Pakistan is left with no option except to stay alert till elections are over. If Modi wins he will be more dangerous and anything can be expected from him but if he loses things would certainly calm down. We should take off illusion from our mind about theory of deterrence but remain alert to meet any eventuality. The only super power did not use any nuclear arsenal in Afghanistan and suffered defeat and finally had to sit across the table with the Taliban, sooner or later India will have to adopt this course
An important question that is agitating mind of everybody and thinkers that in case of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan will both countries resort to use of Atom Bomb? There is no possibility as it will destroy both, at the most it will be a conventional adventure that too from Indian side. From Pakistan it will be “No first use” doctrine for nuclear weapons. But no one can stop conventional conflict escalating towards nuclear war. Will the world powers allow that is a million dollar question. Another school of thought that since Pakistan army strength is much less than India therefore Pakistan in case India invades Pakistan with full might and Pakistan losing some of its area may decide to go for nuclear option but again it is a remote possibility. India could defeat our army in East Pakistan because of distance and air sea routes denied but now the situation is different. India brought in action 3 Corps against 2 divisions of Pakistan army with no air force on our side. FM Manekshaw during an interview on a question about Pakistan army’s capabilities had categorically stated that Pakistan army fought gallantly but had no chance to win because they were 1000 miles away from their base. Unfortunately our media under the influence of Indian media and hostile press of west appears to toe their line and downplay our own army without knowing the actual facts.
There is no doubt Pakistan has soft belly at places but that has been taken care of. Once the war starts then nothing can be predicted as both sides attack with certain mission and objectives set forth. Pakistan has time tested friends to back up China, KSA, and Russia with superpower US, Israel and European countries siding with India. It may turn out to be a bigger theatre of war that will not be in anybody’s interest.
West has always feared that Pakistan nuclear weapons could be stolen. It is strange on one hand they are ignorant about the location of our nukes then how these can be stolen? The entire world by now knows that they are in safe hands and in the custody of Pakistan army and is fully guarded where penetration of an ant is not possible. According to head of army division that controls Pakistan nuclear assets sometime back had said that approximately 10000 troops were guarding the nuclear facilities. The area is under surveillance round the clock. During George Bush tenure US paid $ 100 million to Pakistan to improve physical facilities holding nuclear material and war heads. The main purpose of this aid was to get closer to Pakistan to have access to the facilities so that its exact location could be ascertained but Pakistan so far has not allowed any un authorized person to have access to these facilities. We have to be very careful in accepting any aid for the protection and strengthening the inner and outer parameter of nuclear material and war heads. Let us not get swayed by the propaganda that our nuclear assets are unsafe and Al-Qaida and Taliban extremists can capture, it is a bogey to put pressure on Pakistan and the present leadership is in no mood to take any dictation from anyone.