The global food crisis and supply chains: A test of resilience – and a wake-up call for Pakistan

The world is staring down the barrel of another food crisis. Not the kind that arrives suddenly with a single catastrophic event, but the more insidious kind – one that has been building for months, layered with geopolitical tension, climate volatility, and structural fragility. And for Pakistan, a country already grappling with its own agricultural turmoil, the stakes could not be higher.

Global food commodity markets entered 2026 on relatively stable footing, supported by ample grain and edible oil supplies. That stability, however, proved deceptive. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, has sent shockwaves through global supply chains. The strait is not merely a strategic waterway; it is a lifeline for global agriculture. Prior to the disruption, it accounted for roughly 35 percent of the global fertilizer supply chain and 20 percent of phosphate fertilizer supplies. Some 1.3 million tonnes of fertilizers per month can no longer transit through the strait, with no viable land-based alternatives available.

The numbers are stark. Urea prices have roughly doubled in a matter of weeks. The World Bank projects a 31 percent increase in global fertilizer prices for 2026. Oil prices have surged by 50 percent, natural gas by 25 percent, and freight and bunker fuel costs by approximately 43 percent and 58 percent, respectively. The FAO’s chief economist has warned that we face a “high probability” of a significant food crisis if the situation is not resolved.

This is not merely a price shock; it is a production shock waiting to happen. Fertilizers are not optional inputs – roughly half of global food production depends on them. When farmers are forced to reduce fertilizer use due to soaring costs, the consequences manifest months later in lower crop yields, tighter food supplies, and further upward pressure on prices. The reduced availability of ammonia-, urea-, phosphate- and sulfur-based fertilizers could lower the production of staple crops like wheat, maize and rice within the next six to nine months. This is a chain reaction that begins at the farm gate and ends at the dinner table – and no country, no matter how powerful, is immune.

Compounding the geopolitical disruption is the looming threat of a strong El Niño. Forecasters estimate nearly a two-thirds probability that El Niño will reach a very strong intensity by November-December 2026. For agricultural markets, this is deeply concerning. El Niño typically brings prolonged drought to Southeast Asia and drier conditions across parts of Australia, northern Brazil, southern Africa, and South Asia – key producing regions for grains, sugarcane, and oilseeds. With agricultural markets already facing conflict-related cost pressures, a stronger or more persistent El Niño could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously, pushing food prices well above current projections.

For Pakistan, these global pressures are not abstract concerns – they are already reshaping the country’s agricultural landscape and food security. Pakistan’s agricultural production systems rely heavily on fertilizers traded through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has hit at the worst possible time. Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, surged between July 2025 and January 2026 by about 50 to 90 percent in most markets. A 20-kilogram wheat flour bag that cost Rs1,615 in April 2025 had risen to Rs2,151 by April 2026.

The country’s wheat sector has entered a deep economic and policy crisis, exposing structural weaknesses in agricultural planning, procurement management, and food security governance. Sector analysts believe the national wheat crop may be more than 20 percent below annual requirements – a worrying deficit at a time of volatile global grain markets. The Federal Committee for Agriculture had initially fixed the wheat production target at 30 million tonnes, but estimates were subsequently revised downward owing to climatic impacts. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data shows wheat production at 29.48 million tonnes, 6.8 percent below the 2023-24 peak.

The crisis is compounded by rising input costs. DAP fertilizer prices have increased from around Rs12,000 per 50-kilogram bag last year to over Rs16,000 this season, while diesel, electricity, seed and labour costs have also surged. Many growers have reduced fertilizer use amid uncertainty over procurement and pricing, with wheat yields already falling by nearly five maunds per acre as a result.

The consequences for food security are severe. The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises identifies nearly 11 million Pakistanis facing acute food insecurity – about 9.3 million in the “crisis” category and approximately 1.7 million in the “emergency” phase, just short of famine. Pakistan now ranks among the ten countries where acute hunger is most concentrated, alongside Afghanistan, Sudan, and Yemen. In the 2025 Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranked 106th out of 123 countries and was placed in the “serious” hunger category. These are not just statistics – they represent real families, real children, and real futures at risk.

If there is a silver lining, it lies in the fact that this crisis is not inevitable – and it is not insurmountable. The interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, offers a glimmer of hope. But even if the strait reopens tomorrow, some effects may already be unavoidable because planting seasons are underway.

The deeper lesson is that global supply chains for energy, fertilizers and food remain deeply fragile. Governments and industry must broaden their suppliers and trade routes, improve fertilizer efficiency through advanced agriculture methods, and expand farmers’ access to financing and risk-management tools.

For Pakistan, the path forward requires both immediate and long-term action. In the short term, provinces like Punjab and Sindh have taken steps to procure wheat from the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) to stabilize prices. But these are stopgap measures. The country’s broader agricultural stagnation has long been tied to weak research, poor seed development and a failure to translate scientific work into field-level productivity. Agricultural policies must shift from rewarding acreage to rewarding efficiency, from promoting water-intensive crops to promoting climate-resilient ones.

The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises should serve as a serious warning. Pakistan cannot afford to wait. The convergence of geopolitical disruption, climate volatility, and domestic policy failures has created a perfect storm. But with coordinated action – at the global level to stabilize supply chains and at the national level to build agricultural resilience – the worst can still be averted.

The question is not whether the crisis will deepen, but whether the world – and Pakistan – will act in time.