Trump’s posture towards Russia shows the operationalization of “Reverse Nixon” policy. In other words, he is attempting to divide American adversaries. However, this doctrine and tactics are now new. The former U.S. President Richard Nixon and his secretary of state Henry Kissinger attempted similar methods to divide the USSR and China in the early 1970s. This time, the target is different. Instead of isolating Russia with the help of China, Trump chooses to counter China by aligning with Putin. Given the economic and military capabilities of China, Trump is afraid of Thucydides Trap, a concept which says that the established hegemon is skeptical of the rising power.
But, there is a huge difference between the circumstances when the original doctrine was proposed. Given the geopolitical proximities, one can carefully conclude that the Dragon-Bear alliance is unlikely to shake. Instead, Trump is misdirected as Putin is the master of diplomatic maneuvering and strategic ambiguity. He will likely portray that Russia do not want to be a small brother of China in the geopolitics and geo-economics.
Even if Trump succeeded in breaking the alliance, there is no guarantee that the next U.S. government will continue the similar policy as is advocated by Trump administration. On the other hand, giving leverage to Russia in the Ukraine War will have broader implications for the regional security as China may likely adopt similar policies to change the status quo in the region.
During the détente period of Cold War, the U.S. attempted to isolate Russia (USSR) by approaching communist China. The two neighboring states were a threat for the United States due to their demographic size, military might, and communist ideology. Following the rift between the both, Kissinger secretly visited China in early 1971 to pave the way for the Nixon’s visit next year. It facilitated China’s global recognition and its status as a mainland China, something very promising at the time. On the other hand, it isolated the communist Russia and gave advantage to Washington in the Cold War competition.
Now-a-days, as Trump is trying to appease Putin, expert fear that it is the reversal of decades old policy, with China being portrayed as a main enemy instead of Russia. Trump criticized Biden for allowing China and Russia to become closer allies since the start of Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. He vows to disunite the both. Beijing, on the other hand, rejected it. The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi called it a “Cold War mindset”. Russia has not yet officially responded to this claim but its rejection of Trump’s peace plan, high-level defense meetings between the officials, and invitation of Chinese President Xi on the defense day shows that Moscow is not willing to risk its strategic ties with China.
Here arises a question: why would Russia risk its partnership with China? The U.S. secretary of the state Marco Rubio addressed this by warning Russia of becoming subservient to the rising Dragon. Aligning with the United States will help Russia revive its diplomatic image as a capable and powerful state after the end of Ukraine War. Becoming a so called junior partner to China will make Moscow vulnerable to follow what Beijing says. These are the common tactics Trump administration is using to ensure the strategic shift.
Weeks after a telephonic conversation took place between Putin and Trump, Xi and Putin also contacted with each other and Xi called Putin “a true friend” and termed China’s partnership with Russia as of “Strategic Value”. Beijing is heavily dependent on Russia for its energy security. Russia also depends on China for its trade and economic survival.
If Russia wins the war – in a scenario where its sovereignty and territorial integrity is enact – and survives in the international community, it will be a positive message for Beijing to pursue its territorial ambitions by using force. In this realm, the unbreakable partnership between the Dragon and the Bear is necessary.
To conclude, one can say that the partnership between Putin and Xi is unbreakable as Russia knows that any change in the government of the United States will reverse Trump’s policies. Trump’s assumptions of isolating China are based on the decades old Cold War logic where the situation was entirely different. However, it is suspected that Trump will play in the hands of Putin if he continues this discourse.
