Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, supporting millions of livelihoods, supplying raw materials to industry, meeting domestic food requirements and contributing to exports. Yet farmers across the country are struggling to secure fair returns for their labour. Wheat growers are finding it difficult to sell their produce at remunerative prices, rice growers in Sindh are facing falling market rates, cotton production remains under pressure, and sugarcane farmers often have to wait for payments from sugar mills. Meanwhile, consumers are paying increasingly high prices for flour, making it harder for low-income households to afford even two meals a day.
This contradiction raises a fundamental question: if farmers cannot earn reasonable returns and consumers cannot access affordable food, who benefits from the existing agricultural marketing system?
The Pakistan Kisan Rabita Committee, an alliance of 36 farmers’ organisations, has announced nationwide protests, demanding a minimum wheat support price of Rs5,000 per maund (40 kilogrammes) and a sugarcane price of Rs700 per 40kg. Farmers argue that production costs have risen sharply while crop prices have been left to market uncertainty, exposing growers to exploitation.
For the government, this is not merely a dispute over agricultural prices. It is a question of food security, inflation, industrial competitiveness and long-term economic stability.
Cultivation requires substantial investment in seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, diesel, electricity, irrigation, machinery and labour. Farmers also bear the risks of water shortages, unpredictable weather, pests and natural disasters. Their capital remains tied up in the land for months before a crop becomes available for sale. Harvesting, however, does not necessarily bring relief. Small farmers often lack warehouses and adequate storage facilities. Faced with loan repayments, household expenses and preparations for the next crop, they cannot afford to hold their produce until prices improve.
Large traders, middlemen, millers and other commercial buyers, by contrast, generally have greater access to capital, storage, transport and market information. Where buyers are few and farmers must sell quickly, bargaining power shifts towards purchasers. This resembles monopsony, a market structure in which a limited number of buyers possess disproportionate power to influence prices and purchasing conditions. Weak competition, inadequate storage, poor market information and limited collective bargaining further undermine farmers’ position.
The solution lies in creating competitive agricultural markets, expanding farmers’ access to alternative buyers and ensuring transparent pricing and timely payments. Wheat is Pakistan’s staple food crop, and its price directly affects household budgets through flour, bread and other essential food items. Farmers argue that the minimum support price should be announced before sowing so that they can make informed decisions about cultivation and investment. The previous support price of Rs3,500 per maund is being cited by growers against the backdrop of rising production costs. Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain has indicated that farmers may receive favourable news regarding the next wheat price, while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said the government will announce a price after consultations with the provinces. Such assurances may be encouraging, but farmers need a predictable and workable policy rather than promises. An announcement made after sowing offers little help in determining what to plant.
The approval to import 750,000 tonnes of wheat has also raised questions. According to the Trading Corporation of Pakistan’s tender arrangements, the proposed distribution includes 300,000 tonnes for Sindh, 250,000 tonnes for Punjab and 200,000 tonnes for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The figures cited in the available information place annual domestic consumption at approximately 31.3 million tonnes, while the Economic Survey 2025-26 puts production at 29.61 million tonnes. Government and private stocks must also be considered when assessing actual availability.
Imports may be necessary if a genuine shortfall exists. However, decisions must be based on a transparent assessment of domestic production, public and private stocks, provincial requirements, transportation and projected consumption. Unnecessary imports could depress local prices, damage farmers’ incomes and place additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Pakistan needs a coherent wheat policy that prioritises domestic production while retaining the flexibility to import when shortages are established.
The farmers’ committee has called for an end to the existing private-sector-led wheat procurement arrangement and the restoration of purchasing through the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) and provincial food departments.
Public procurement can provide farmers with a reliable buyer and help prevent distress sales. Yet restoring government purchasing without safeguards would not be sufficient. Procurement centres must be accessible, payments timely, and the handling and release of stocks transparent. A combination of minimum-price guarantees, targeted public procurement, collective marketing by farmer organisations and competitive private purchasing could offer a more sustainable model.
The consequences of weak agricultural markets are increasingly visible in retail flour prices. Reports cited in the available information indicate that a 10kg flour bag in Hyderabad has reached Rs1,800, while flour prices in parts of Sindh have risen further. Karachi’s chakki flour has reportedly reached Rs200 per kilogramme, against a notified rate of Rs145, while fine flour has been reported at Rs176 per kilogramme.
In Balochistan, a 50kg flour bag has reportedly reached Rs8,000. Prices in Multan and other cities have also risen, placing additional pressure on household budgets.
These figures relate to reported prices at particular times and locations, but the broader trend is unmistakable: food inflation is becoming increasingly difficult for low-income families to absorb.
For a daily-wage worker earning between Rs500 and Rs1,000, flour competes with rent, electricity, gas, education and healthcare for a limited household income. When food prices rise faster than earnings, families are forced to reduce consumption or sacrifice other essentials.
Figures attributed to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicate a weekly inflation increase of 0.57 per cent and an annual rate of 11.97pc, with flour prices rising 5.69pc in a week. Such increases underline the need for effective market monitoring, action against hoarding and enforcement of official price notifications.
Administrative raids alone, however, cannot provide a lasting solution. Stable supplies of wheat to flour mills and transparent distribution arrangements are equally important.
In response to rising flour prices, the Sindh government has announced plans to provide subsidised wheat to flour mills from October 15 at a proposed rate of Rs12,500 per 100kg. In Punjab, Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif has approved a Rs10 billion subsidy and an increase in the quota of subsidised wheat supplied to flour mills at Rs3,800 per maund.
These measures could provide immediate relief, provided the benefits reach consumers. If public funds are used to supply cheaper wheat but retail flour prices remain high, the purpose of the subsidy is defeated.
Governments must therefore monitor wheat allocations, flour production, distribution and retail prices. Subsidies should be targeted, transparent and regularly evaluated rather than treated as a substitute for structural reform.
Wheat is not the only crop causing concern. Rice growers in Sindh’s Badin, Thatta, Sujawal and Tando Mohammad Khan districts are reportedly facing falling prices despite good harvests. In some markets, rice prices have declined from Rs4,000 to Rs2,800 per maund. There are also complaints of deductions of four to five kilogrammes per maund by some buyers.
If these deductions violate agreed purchasing terms, authorities should investigate promptly. Unfair reductions in both prices and measured quantities can inflict a double loss on farmers who have already paid for inputs, irrigation and labour.
Sindh should consider establishing effective procurement points, publishing daily market prices and facilitating collective sales through farmer organisations. Any public intervention must be based on a careful assessment of production, market conditions and fiscal capacity. Sugarcane growers face a related problem: their unequal bargaining relationship with sugar mills. Farmers are demanding Rs700 per 40kg and complain of inadequate prices and delayed payments. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association, meanwhile, has advocated deregulation of the sugar sector and permission to export surplus stocks. The government must balance the interests of industry, growers and consumers. Exports may be justified when domestic requirements are secure and a genuine surplus exists, but deregulation must not come at the expense of farmers’ rights. Transparent weighing, compliance with notified prices and legally enforceable payment deadlines should be mandatory. Commercial freedom must go hand in hand with accountability. Pakistan’s cotton sector illustrates the wider consequences of agricultural uncertainty. According to the estimates cited in the available information, domestic production fell from around seven million bales in 2023-24 to approximately five million in 2024-25. Production for 2025-26 was estimated at 5.6 million bales, while a projection attributed to the US Department of Agriculture suggests output could decline to 4.9 million in 2026-27.
Against an estimated annual requirement of around 10 million bales for the domestic spinning industry, declining production could increase dependence on imported cotton, strain foreign exchange reserves and reduce returns for local growers.
High input costs, water scarcity, climate change, inadequate access to quality seeds, pest attacks and shifting crop preferences may all contribute to the decline. The government must strengthen agricultural research, improve seed quality, promote modern pest management and ensure competitive input costs. Taxation and energy-related constraints facing ginning and textile industries also require attention.
Cotton is not merely a crop; it underpins textile exports, industrial employment and a substantial part of Pakistan’s manufacturing economy. Its revival is therefore essential for both farmers and industry. Reports of a proposed fixed agricultural tax of up to Rs5,000 per acre have added to farmers’ concerns. Taxing agricultural income fairly is a legitimate policy objective, but the system must distinguish between small subsistence-oriented growers and large commercial landowners.
A uniform burden can be particularly harsh on farmers whose earnings barely cover production costs and debt repayments. Taxation should be based on actual income, transparent records and the ability to pay, ensuring that larger agricultural incomes contribute fairly while vulnerable growers receive appropriate protection. Pakistan’s agricultural crisis cannot be resolved through a single support-price announcement, subsidy or import decision. It requires a coordinated, long-term strategy. First, prices for major crops should be announced before sowing, taking account of input costs, labour, irrigation and land preparation. Second, farmers must have access to multiple buyers, competitive markets, cooperatives and collective marketing arrangements. Third, payment deadlines must be enforced, particularly in the sugarcane sector, while transparent weighing and pricing should protect rice growers. Fourth, affordable agricultural credit and targeted support for seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and fuel should help reduce production costs.
Fifth, investment in warehouses, modern markets and cold-chain facilities would allow farmers to store produce rather than sell immediately at depressed prices. Sixth, federal and provincial governments should regularly publish reliable information on production, stocks, imports, procurement and flour distribution.
Finally, farmers’ organisations, agricultural experts, industry representatives, workers and consumers must be included in policymaking. Decisions made without consulting those directly affected are unlikely to deliver lasting results.
Pakistan’s farmers are caught in a cycle of rising costs, uncertain prices, unequal bargaining power and delayed payments. Consumers, meanwhile, face expensive flour, while the textile industry struggles with declining cotton supplies and costly raw materials.
The contradiction points to a failure in the wider system linking agricultural production to consumers, rather than merely a shortage of wheat or a temporary rise in flour prices.
The government should engage farmers before the announced October 18 protests and present practical measures on crop pricing, procurement, payments and agricultural inputs.
Farmers deserve a fair return for their labour, but consumers must also have access to affordable, nutritious food. Reconciling these objectives is the foundation of sustainable agricultural policy.
When farmers suffer, production is threatened. Lower output can increase imports, weaken foreign exchange reserves and push food prices higher, placing an even greater burden on ordinary citizens.
Pakistan must recognise farmers not as passive recipients of assistance but as essential partners in national economic development. Food security, agricultural prosperity and relief from inflation will remain elusive until those who cultivate the land receive fair prices, timely payments and the opportunity to earn a dignified livelihood.
