Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions deepen as proxy war expands; Tajikistan emerges as key regional player

KARACHI: Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have entered one of their most turbulent phases in decades. After hosting more than four million Afghan refugees since 1979-an unprecedented humanitarian commitment-Pakistan now finds itself the target of cross-border terrorism originating from Afghan soil. Pakistan paid a staggering price for its support to Afghanistan: more than 80,000 lives lost and economic damages crossing USD 200 billion during the war on terror.
Following the Taliban’s return to power, Pakistan expected Kabul to act against groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Instead, attacks surged, and Afghan territory once again became a sanctuary for anti-Pakistan militants. Analysts link these developments to India’s growing influence in Afghanistan, with RAW allegedly supporting militant proxies as part of a broader regional strategy against Pakistan.
Amid this escalating tension, Tajikistan has quietly become a pivotal factor in regional stability. Unlike other neighbouring states, Tajikistan has refused to recognise the Taliban government, criticising its exclusion of Tajik and other ethnic minorities. Dushanbe’s support for the National Resistance Front (NRF) and its warnings about terrorism spreading across northern Afghanistan have strengthened its strategic relevance.
Russia sees Tajikistan as the security gate of Central Asia; China considers it essential for protecting Xinjiang from extremist infiltration; and India views it as a valuable counter-balance to Taliban influence. This bold positioning has transformed Tajikistan into a stabilising force in a volatile region.
For Pakistan, Tajikistan’s approach presents both challenges and potential openings. Both countries share deep concerns over cross-border militancy. If Islamabad and Dushanbe coordinate their expectations from Kabul, they may help shape a stronger and more unified regional security framework.
As Pakistan faces a renewed wave of terrorism and an emerging proxy war backed by hostile actors, Tajikistan’s assertive role offers a new avenue for diplomacy and stability. The path to regional peace will depend on dismantling militant networks in Afghanistan and fostering regional cooperation grounded in mutual security.