China India conflict in Ladakh is not new. 1962 India China war was fought in this very area. Recently it has turned violent again and by now India not only lost senior officers and around forty seven men in the area of Golan Vally and Finger fish , reportedly hundreds are missing . In the process China established its control sixty miles (135 other sources) inside effectively . (Moodi Government deny) . China is now controlling any movement in the area down in Shyok . It is strategically crucial , it effectively over look Darbuk – Shyok – Daulat Beg Oldi road . It important as it connects to Karakoram pass and further on To Gilgit Baltistan , area of CPEC which is now the linch pin in China’s One Belt One Road strategic plans to make Asia Pacific sea route irrelevant. The issue has been coming up several time and in 2017 China announced there is no border. China has a stated policy , without compromising it sovereign claims, it developed trade with all these countries with whom it had territorial disputes. Mao, way back in 1950 , had Stated China policy that Tibet is the Palm and Ladakh , Nepal , Bhutan , Sikkim and Aranachul Pradesh are five fingers . They considered these area part of Tibet.
Since 1991
Chinas development index stunned the world hovering over 10 %. China based its industrial development on three verticals , first , infrastructure development from dams to cities and roads.Today it has developed one of the finest rail net work in the world . It’s highway’s and its express roads linking remotest part of the country. It’s modern new cities reflect science fiction.Second , industrial development from SMEs to industrial colossal backed by ease of business, cheap funding and electricity. It has turned China in to a formidable Economic and Industrial power. Third, development of military capability. It modernised and developed its capability as finest conventional army , naval and airforces , and formidable nuclear capability. Going further, it has developed capability to counter hybrid , cyber war , edge in information technology to ensure denial of information to enemy and now developing fast in space. In space it is behind but has acquired advance capability to launch stations in space and satellites. It’s edge in G5 technology has made America nervous and clamping on chinese technology firms restrictions contrary to WTO agreements.
Chins never engaged itself in military conflict with single aim to achieve above objectives . In this period it also never compromised it territorial sovereign claims . World in last three four years realised dragon is awakening.
In this contact CPEC is the most important project, China has undertaken under one belt one road. This project is key to connect the countries os Central Asia , South Asia , and Far East on land roots with a view to avoid containment from the sea by the America and it’s proxies , especially state of Melaka and in Asia specific by enhancing its naval capability . It is indeed important to note that CPEC has been opposed by the Americans and Indians alike. Threats , annexation Kashmir Vally and declaring Ladakh as Union Territory . For that , it build tactical , logistics and coxed with American backing India thought it will get away . Since last year China is protesting on India’s unilateral actions.
Beijing’s stated policy is India to revise its decision . China view it in a global prism . Latest China has warned India , rescinding all previous agreements asking to vacate Galwan completely . Any further escalation will invite war which may escalate right in to Kashmir, again disputed under UN resolutions.
US has increased it naval presence in South China Sea by sending three naval ships beside raising alert status of sea based bases. Trumps wearing position in forthcoming US elections made him more aggressive . Thus the issue is not merely tactical that skirmishes are going on on top of Himalayas but way down tensions are rising in Asia Pacific . It has global strategic contours and implications.
On Pakistan side CPEC , AK and Gilgit Baltistan are under real threat . CPEC is important pillar of China Pakistan strategic policy.
Immense pressure has been built up on Pakistan not only by USA but also by India, kill CPEC or else stall it .
America and China trade war and politicalising the virus COVID19 has created a warlike situation . The battle lines are thus drawn.
Revocation of article 370 and 35A , dividing Kashmir into three regions ,Nazi style curfew and lockdown clamped in Kashmir from over last ten months has made strategic milieu tense and is catalyst . Pakistan has been making noises in world capitols and so far UNO has not moved beyound lip serve. Even Arabs did not come out in outright condemnation , it now when Turkey and China virtually boycotted G20 , Arabs are awakening . Earlier India managed to stop Kalabagh and stall Bhasha Dam through its proxies in Pakistan .
China thus strongly reacted and decided to take control of strategic territory it claim theirs.The area falls under over all Command of Tibet Command , reportedly Chinese have already made war proportions. It should be recalled , Musharraf had taken control of Kargil effectively and was in a position to block Ladakh Leh road . It was Indo US combine pressure and nuclear bluff , Pakistan army was made to withdraw by NZ government.
India , indications is not going to take on China militarily in this region. Beside capability , there are two important factors, one, without open US support , Russia remains neutral , India will not commit major part of forces in Ladakh Sector. Two , India would like to preserve its offensive capability against Pakistan and would not like to dissipate it by engaging China. Further expansion of conflict will undermine its hold in the valley where 8 million Kashmiris have already started liberation war . Conflict will see they coming out openly and disrupting Indian lines of communication and lines of logistic supply. True to Chankya philosophy , some Indian advisors are now advising Moodi to extend hand of friendship for talks to Pakistan , an old trick they always employed . Thus India will try to minimise the dent they suffered to placate opposition and public at large . They thought world powers will try to stabilise situation even keeping quite on territorial loss. Their embassies in US , EU and Moscow are engaged in back door diplomacy . At this moment Raj Nath is pleading in Moscow.
But the threat to Pakistan is going to increase. India,s internal domestic political situation, turning tide against Modi government, economic fall down due post Covid 19 , growing internal unrest and separatist movements in Assam triangle where Nepalese and China can squeeze on Chicken neck area , may prompt Modi to take on adventure against Pakistan to placate Indian population , political opposition and restore morale of Indian Army. Some indian military politico experts are advocating limited war at lower spectrum . It is a dangerous proposition
Pakistan FO should wake up from slumber. Nepal should have been appreciated for its brave and principled stand . Happening in Ladakh and beyound has direct bearing on Pakistan . Pakistan should come out more openly in support of China on their principle stand. After 1962 , this is the opportunity to settle issue and Pakistan should not blink irrespective of cost.
Sudden furore in opposition is meaningful .
The political elements should rise to occasion and sort out internal issues later. The government should provide space for the larger national consensus . Political temperatures must be lowered.
For Pakistan it is a existential threat.