Economic experts largely expect the SBP to maintain the current interest rate at 11 percent, citing recent inflation numbers that show moderation but not enough to trigger a rate cut at this stage. According to a market survey, 88 percent of respondents believe the policy rate will remain unchanged, 10 percent expect a cut of 50 basis points, while only 2 percent anticipate a full 1 percent reduction.
Analysts point out that the SBP has maintained a cautious monetary stance in recent months to consolidate gains on the inflation front while ensuring external account stability. A premature rate cut, they argue, could risk fueling inflation again or put pressure on the rupee.
However, some business groups and industry leaders are advocating for a gradual reduction in the policy rate to ease financing costs for manufacturers and exporters. They believe that with inflation trending downward and foreign exchange reserves showing signs of recovery, a small cut would support investment and job creation without destabilizing the economy.
Market participants are also watching the policy announcement for signals on future monetary direction. A status quo decision may indicate that the central bank prefers to wait for a more sustained decline in inflation and external vulnerabilities before moving toward monetary easing.
The decision is expected to shape investor sentiment and guide credit markets in the coming months, as Pakistan aims to maintain economic stability while balancing inflation control with growth support.
