The withdrawal of US and allied forces from Afghanistan is proceeding faster than scheduled,terrorist operations in Afghanistan have also intensified, although the Taliban are refusing to take responsibility for the latest operations.The Taliban’s escalating military presence in Afghanistan and the seizure of Kabul by force could lead to civil war.In this situation, the neighboring countries will face a new flood of refugees.Pakistan will once again face new challenges. The influx of refugees could pose a serious threat to Pakistan’s peace and security. Second, if a civil war breaks out in Afghanistan, it will have the greatest impact on Pakistan.The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 or the arrival of US and NATO forces in 2001. Pakistan had to bear the direct loss.As a result, Pakistan has hosted 3 million Afghan refugees for more than three decades, In the current situation, Pakistan has decided with regard to the refugees that if they come, they will be kept close to the border. Don’t let them enter the country.
On the other hand, the United States is looking for military bases in the region. In addition to Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are emerging.Under Musharraf, Pakistan has allowed the United States to use an airbase and has suffered the consequences.If Pakistan decides to give up military bases under US pressure, there is a risk of resentment and retaliation by the Afghan Taliban, and talks with the Kabul administration are already almost deadlocked.Such a decision could increase threats to national security.Even disobeying the United States can lead to resentment. This is a very complex and serious situation for Pakistan.The civil and military leadership must take every step with great forethought and wisdom.
The Kabul administration has a large number of enemies of Pakistan, including Hamdullah Mohib, a national security adviser to Ashraf Ghani, who made a derogatory remark about Pakistan.Those who keep throwing the rubble of their failures on Pakistan have been conspiring against Pakistan along with India.India itself has been using the Kabul administration against Pakistan so that Pakistan can focus its full attention and military capability on the Afghan border.
After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan must establish and strengthen its position in the new alliances in the changing situation in the region.So that not only Pakistan can be a partner in the new system of regional security that is being formed, but also better protect its interests,countries in the region, especially Iran, Turkey, China, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will continue to burn in the fires of civil war until they adopt a regional strategyand Pakistan will also suffer from this fire.Pakistan is currently in talks with Turkey, China, Iran and the United States.Whichever country or institution such as the ICO or the United Nations is pursuing a regional strategy, Pakistan will definitely have to play a very active role with them.
With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the end of the US monopoly in the region has begun.Recent statements by the presidents of Russia and China are a clear indication.A spokesman for Russia’s presidential palace said in an interview in March that Russia would not allow the United States or any other country to use force. Moscow has made it clear that US monopolies will no longer be tolerated.
A similar statement was made by Chinese President Xi Jinping while addressing the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CCP).”The time has come to threaten China. If any power tries to bully us, we will hit its head on the wall and smash it,no one should underestimate us in power and authority in the struggle against external forces, they are strengthening their forces,we will not allow foreign forces to bully, our 1.5 billion people will not be weakened.’If the Taliban maintained better relations with neighboring countries with better strategyChina can accelerate the Belt and Road project in Afghanistan,if China becomes active in Afghanistan, then besides the European powers, India will also be out of Afghanistan.DG, ISPR Major General Babar Iftikhar said that in the current situation, India’s investment in Afghanistan seems to be sinking.
The Taliban’s move depends on how the talks in Doha move forward.If the United States and the Afghan Taliban had a behind-the-scenes agreement on governance in Afghanistan, it would be a very bad situation,there is no doubt that the United States has made the Taliban an international force in Afghanistan by signing the Doha Agreement.Based on this force, the Taliban have captured about 70 to 80 percent of Afghanistan.Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Iran have seized some key areas on the border. The Taliban claim control of about 160 districts, as the Afghan Taliban advance on the basis of force, the capture of Kabul Airport by the Taliban could jeopardize all diplomatic missions in Afghanistan.Australia has already announced the temporary closure of its embassy, while the diplomatic staff of all major countries, including the United States, has been reduced, if diplomatic missions close, efforts to resolve the Afghan problem will suffer an irreparable blow.According to US media reports, in a battle between Afghan forces and the Taliban in Daulat Abad,Afghan commandos surrendered after the ammunition ran out.The Taliban shot and killed 22 surrendering Afghan commandos.Such incidents will surely give the United States another chance to intervene in Afghanistan. The dangers of civil war in the region, including Afghanistan, will increase.